21 November 2025

Weather hits 2025 English cereal output: Analyst insight

Earlier today, Defra released its first estimates of cereal (wheat, barley and oats) and oilseed rape production in England from the 2025 harvest.

2 October 2025

Why prices feel lower than they are: Analyst insight

In recent conversations, many farmers have reported that, despite historically high prices, falling commodity prices have added further strain, leaving profit margins tighter than ever.

30 September 2025

Analyst Insight: Why does the 2024/25 wheat balance sheet not balance?

Earlier today, we released the final balance sheets of the 2024/25 season. In theory, at the end of the season, all actual data relating to supplies, usage, trade and stocks should balance.

11 September 2025

Analyst Insight: What can we expect for bioethanol demand in 2025/26?

In the latest AHDB Cereals market outlook, we used data from our fourth harvest progress report, Defra’s 2025 June Survey of Agriculture, and results from our Planting and Variety Survey (PVS), to estimate UK wheat harvest for 2025 at around 12.2 Mt.

7 August 2025

Analyst's Insight: Could we see increased demand for British oats?

UK oat production has seen stable growth in recent years, with the 2025/26 planted area provisionally estimated at 207 Kha, by the results of the AHDB planting and variety survey (PVS)

19 June 2025

Analyst Insight: Another steep drop in delinked payments in 2026

In the 2024 autumn budget, as steeper than expected reduction in direct payments was announced for 2025. Following the Spending Review on 11 June 2025, Defra have confirmed that reductions to direct payments will be larger still in 2026 and 2027.

23 May 2025

What impact have recent dry springs had on wheat? Analyst insight

While we wait to see what rain falls, is there anything can we take from recent dry springs about the potential impact on wheat yields or quality?

3 April 2025

Rising sterling adds to tariff worries: Analyst’s insight

UK feed wheat futures are trading lower today, pulled down by fears in global grain and oilseed markets about the impact of new US tariffs and stronger sterling.

19 December 2024

Analyst Insight: UK feed wheat prices set for another year of losses, but where next?

As it stands (up to 18 Dec), December is on track to be the seventh consecutive month that UK nearby feed wheat futures have been lower on the year.

18 December 2024

What’s the current situation regarding the UK’s RED II recognition?

Stakeholders are awaiting clarity from the European Commission regarding the recognition of the reclassified UK NUTS 2 values, as well as UBD and recognition of UKAS.

10 January 2025

Analyst Insight: Final UK harvest 2024 estimates

Earlier today, Defra released the final estimates for 2024 UK cereal and oilseed production.

1 August 2024

Analyst Insight: Could a smaller domestic wheat crop impact bread prices?

AHDB’s 2024 Planting and Variety Survey (PVS) results forecast UK wheat area at 1.56 Mha, the second lowest area since 1981 (after 2020).

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