Rapeseed imports into the EU27 + UK are off to a slow start this season, in a year where the trading bloc faces another 6.0Mt import requirement. Difficult sowing conditions, coupled with extended periods of dryness, have hit production estimates for much of the continent.

Global wheat prices declined last week after Russian consultancy IKAR increased its forecast for the Russian crop from 76.5Mt to 78.0Mt last Monday (27 Jul).

AHDB’s first harvest progress report of 2020 points to yields of both GB winter oilseed rape and winter barley being sharply down on both last year and the five year average.

Domestic wheat prices will be more exposed to global fundamentals this season following the hefty decline to UK wheat production estimates. We are likely to sit closer to import parity levels.

This season, like most seasons in recent history, Black Sea grain supplies will be pivotal to the direction of global markets. Adjustments to production estimates from the Black Sea regions set the tone for domestic and international prices, especially in a year when other Northern Hemisphere producers, most notably the US, EU and Ukraine, are set for smaller wheat production.

Many farmers across Europe have probably had a growing season they would rather forget, from a wash away autumn and winter in parts, met by a hot and dry spring.