UK cereals supply and demand estimates

The balance between supply and demand sets the overall tone of the domestic market. We publish forecasts of cereal supply and demand for the UK split into the areas of availability, consumption, exports and stocks.

• Despite a drop in total domestic consumption, a fall in imports and carry-in stocks, leads to a tighter than average wheat balance in 2025/26
• In 2025/26, while barley H&I usage drops to a 16-year low, the smallest crop in 13 years leads to a tighter barley balance sheet
• Maize imports are expected to drop on the back of a decade-low level of usage from the H&I sectors
• With a very mixed crop for 2025, more oats are expected to be fed on farm in 2025/26

Next update: 29 January 2026 (provisional)

Human and industrial, animal feed and cereal stocks datasets, produced by AHDB, are used to underpin these AHDB UK cereals supply and demand estimates.

Data produced by Defra, the Scottish Government, DEARA and HMRC are also critical in compiling the estimates.

All publications from the Defra Farming Statistics Team are available on GOV.UK, along with a publication release calendar listing all pre-announced dates for Defra’s farming statistics.

Information on the data sources used to compile the end-season UK cereals supply and demand estimates can be found here.

For further information please contact the AHDB Market Specialist team at Cereals.MI@ahdb.org.uk.

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.