UK cereals supply and demand estimates

Updated 26 September 2024
The balance between supply and demand sets the overall tone of the domestic market. AHDB publishes forecasts of cereal supply and demand for the UK split into the areas of availability, consumption, exports and stocks.

Latest UK cereal supply and demand: September 2024

Key points

  • Domestic consumption remained historically strong throughout the 2023/24 season, though heavy imports saw end of season stocks at their largest this century.*
  • The barley supply and demand balance remained tighter than average in 2023/24. As with wheat, heavy imports and minimal exports leave historically heavy ending stocks.*
  • With a firm pace towards the end of the season, imports of maize were above the five-year average in the 2023/24 season, with domestic consumption at its highest since 2020/21.
  • Despite reduced domestic consumption, a smaller oat crop and minimal imports, combined with a firmer than average export pace, leads to the smallest ending stocks since 2019/20.

*Please note that due to the unusual nature of the 2023/24 season and subsequent data gaps, an adjusted comerical end-season stocks figure has been used in the wheat and barley balance sheets. In order to avoid any future misreporting in the MPC figures specifically, a review of this survey will be carried out, and actions implemented before the release of the February 2025 stocks data.

View the latest estimates

Historical UK supply and demand

Additional information

Next update: October 2024

Contact us

For further information please contact the AHDB Market Specialist team at Cereals.MI@ahdb.org.uk.

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