UK cereals supply and demand estimates

The balance between supply and demand sets the overall tone of the domestic market. We publish forecasts of cereal supply and demand for the UK split into the areas of availability, consumption, exports and stocks.

• Despite a tighter wheat balance in 2025/26, lacklustre exports lead to relatively average carry-out stocks.
• In 2025/26 H&I barley demand drops to the lowest level since records began in 1990/91.
• With a drop in H&I demand and competitive domestic feed grains, maize imports fall back further.
• More oats are expected to be fed on farm in 2025/26 due to the very mixed picture for quality.

Next update: 26 March 2026 (provisional)

Human and industrial, animal feed and cereal stocks datasets, produced by AHDB, are used to underpin these AHDB UK cereals supply and demand estimates.

Data produced by Defra, the Scottish Government, DEARA and HMRC are also critical in compiling the estimates.

All publications from the Defra Farming Statistics Team are available on GOV.UK, along with a publication release calendar listing all pre-announced dates for Defra’s farming statistics.

Information on the data sources used to compile the end-season UK cereals supply and demand estimates can be found here.

For further information please contact the AHDB Market Specialist team at Cereals.MI@ahdb.org.uk.

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