UK cereals supply and demand estimates

• Domestic consumption remains historically strong, though firmer imports from concerns over next season’s crop, as well as reduced exports, see end of season stocks forecast at their largest this century.
• The barley supply and demand balance remains tighter than average. Though much like wheat, increased imports and minimal exports leave the heaviest ending stocks since 2014/15.
• With increased domestic consumption from the relative price to wheat, imports of maize are forecast up on 2022/23 levels, though remain below the previous five-year average.
• Despite reduced domestic consumption, a smaller oat crop and minimal imports, combined with a firmer than average export pace, leads to the smallest ending stocks forecast since 2005/06.

Next update: September 2024

For further information please contact the AHDB Market Specialist team at Cereals.MI@ahdb.org.uk.

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