UK cereals supply and demand estimates

The balance between supply and demand sets the overall tone of the domestic market. We publish forecasts of cereal supply and demand for the UK split into the areas of availability, consumption, exports and stocks.

This release covers the 2026/27 AHDB Early Balance Sheet estimates for wheat and barley. These estimates are made by AHDB and provide the first look at wheat and barley supply and demand for the season:

• For wheat, the drop in estimated wheat opening stocks outweighs the rise in production
• Despite a decrease in total domestic consumption, this leads to a tighter balance sheet for wheat, with imports playing an important role in 2026/27
• For barley, the drop in availability, driven by the lowest estimated production since 2012/13, outweighs the drop in consumption
• This leads to a very tight balance sheet for barley in 2026/27

Please note that the 2026 barley production forecast was published incorrectly on 22 October 2026; this figure was corrected on 23 October 2026. 

This historical dataset is updated twice a year. It was last updated on 22 September 2026; the next update to this spreadsheet is planned for 26 March 2027.

The next estimates of UK cereal supply and demand are due on Thursday 26 November 2026.

This will include the first estimates for all cereals, including wheat, barley, oats and maize.

Estimates are also planned for release on 28 January 2027, 25 March 2027 and 27 May 2027.

Human and industrial, animal feed and cereal stocks datasets, produced by AHDB, are used to underpin these AHDB UK cereals supply and demand estimates.

Data produced by Defra, the Scottish Government, DEARA and HMRC are also critical in compiling the estimates.

All publications from the Defra Farming Statistics Team are available on GOV.UK, along with a publication release calendar listing all pre-announced dates for Defra’s farming statistics.

While the crop marketing season starts on 1 July, in most years the new crop isn't available straight away.

The estimated operating stock requirement gives an indication of the minimum tonnage that processors of grain need until the new crop can be used.

AHDB publishes UK cereal supply and demand estimates, known as balance sheets, multiple times during each marketing season.

The marketing season runs from 1 July to 30 June.

Estimates during the season are currently released in:

• October - for wheat & barley only, known as the Early Balance Sheets
• November
• January
• March
• May

Plus, in September each year, AHDB publishes End of Season UK cereal supply and demand estimates for the previous season. This is when all the full season official statistics are available.

For further information please contact the AHDB Market Specialist team at Cereals.MI@ahdb.org.uk.

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