UK cereals supply and demand estimates

• Domestic consumption remained historically strong throughout the 2023/24 season, though heavy imports saw end of season stocks at their largest this century.*
• The barley supply and demand balance remained tighter than average in 2023/24. As with wheat, heavy imports and minimal exports leave historically heavy ending stocks.*
• With a firm pace towards the end of the season, imports of maize were above the five-year average in the 2023/24 season, with domestic consumption at its highest since 2020/21.
• Despite reduced domestic consumption, a smaller oat crop and minimal imports, combined with a firmer than average export pace, leads to the smallest ending stocks since 2019/20.

*Please note that due to the unusual nature of the 2023/24 season and subsequent data gaps, an adjusted comerical end-season stocks figure has been used in the wheat and barley balance sheets. In order to avoid any future misreporting in the MPC figures specifically, a review of this survey will be carried out, and actions implemented before the release of the February 2025 stocks data.

Next update: October 2024

For further information please contact the AHDB Market Specialist team at Cereals.MI@ahdb.org.uk.

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