UK cereals supply and demand estimates

• A stronger wheat import pace, coupled with relatively stable demand and exports, have led to heavier closing stocks.
• With tight domestic availability of barley, combined with stronger domestic consumption and exports, carry out stocks are set to be the lowest level in nearly a decade.
• With huge volatility in the global grain market and little liquidity domestically, maize has become more competitive, with imports revised up.
• Driven by a record level of production in 2021, domestic oat usage and exports are forecast to reach multi year highs, leaving tighter end-season stocks.

As part of our work on UK cereals supply and demand we run two groups to enhance our offering to the industry – the AHDB Cross Sector Working Group and the AHDB Audit Function Group.

The aim of the two groups is to gain more industry input into the balance sheet forecasts before they are finalised, as well as ensuring all data is up-to-date and accurate.

To find out more or if you are interested in joining either group, please do get in contact with the AHDB Balance Sheet Team at balance.sheet.team@ahdb.org.uk

Download terms of reference (TOR) for both groups.

Please note AHDB revised the registry for the GB compound animal feed and integrated poultry unit surveys in January 2022, with updated data received. ‘Usage as animal feed’ for wheat, barley, maize and oats has been revised for 2019/20 and 2020/21 to account for these changes.

All updated data has been reflected in the AHDB March official balance sheet.

Next update: September 2022* 

*subject to revision

For further information please contact the AHDB Market Specialist team at Cereals.MI@ahdb.org.uk.

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