Milk forecasting forum

Updated 23 September 2025

Milk production is a fundamental driver of market dynamics in Great Britain. We hold a milk forecasting forum twice a year, where representatives from across the industry debate, analyse and discuss the key factors influencing production. Here you can find the latest information shared with the group.

The AHDB Milk Forecasting Forum (MFF) met on the 23 September to discuss the factors impacting on future GB milk production. The main points of conversation were focussed around:

• Recent trends in herd size and milk yields. In particular, the discussions focussed on the likely decline in milk prices to affect milk output. Steep increase in labour cost and availability remain a cause of concern.
• How economically and for how long can we retain the lower performing cows in the herd?
• Concerns on forage shortage influencing breeding decisions and cow numbers.
• Forage availability is quite regional. However, it remains a challenge for many.
• Impact of BTV3 on dairy herd and milk production and likely uptake of vaccinations.
• Feed market outlook - will bearish costs keep production flowing?
• To what extent the strong Milk to Feed Price Ratio (currently in the expansion zone) will incentivise production during the season.
• Will demand support prices and are margins currently adequate to continue to support increased milk production?
• Will the weather next spring support early turnout and milk production, forage quality and availability or will it be more average (or poor?)
• Persistent uncertainty around global geopolitical factors affecting trade flows.
• The potential longer-term impact of environmental legislationon herd size and structure and inflation on input costs.

We've released a pack of the information discussed at the forum, which you can download below.

We will be updating our production forecast later this month (September 2025). In the meantime, our June forecast update can be found on the website.

Updated 18 June 2025

GB milk production for the 2025/26 season is forecast to record a new high at 12.83bn litres, 3.1% more than the previous milk year, according to our June forecast update.  This is a revision from the previous forecast of 1% due to economic and weather-related factors. 

Please read the forecast update article.

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