Milk forecasting forum

Updated 19 March 2025

Milk production is a fundamental driver of market dynamics in Great Britain. We hold a milk forecasting forum twice a year, where representatives from across the industry debate, analyse and discuss the key factors influencing production. Here you can find the latest information shared with the group.

The AHDB Milk Forecasting Forum (MFF) met on the 18 March to discuss the factors impacting on future GB milk production. The main points of conversation were focussed around:

• Recent trends in herd size and milk yields. In particular, the discussions focussed on decline in herd size likely to affect milk output. Labour issue, higher cost of borrowing and volatility in feed cost remain cause of concern.
• What will be the impact of decline in youngstock numbers on long-term rate of decline in milking herd, particularly in light of the difficulties sourcing replacement heifers from the continent due to BTV.
• How to realise genetic gains made in herd management.
• To what extent the Milk to Feed Price Ratio (currently in the expansion zone) will incentivise production during the season.
• How the current favourable weather is going to support early turnout and milk production, forage quality and availability this season.
• How the lack of availability of replacement heifers will affect herd numbers in future
• Impact of BTV on dairy herd and milk production and likely uptake of vaccinations
• Persistent uncertainty around global geopolitical factors affecting trade flows.
• The potential longer-term impact of environmental legislationon herd size and structure and inflation on input costs.

We've released a pack of the information discussed at the forum, which you can download from the Milk Forecasting Forum webpage.

We will be updating our production forecast later this month (March 2025). In the meantime, our December forecast update can be found on the website.

Updated 25 Mar 2025

GB milk production for the 2025/26 season is forecast to reach 12.6bn litres, 1.2% more than the previous milk year, according to our March forecast update

Please read the forecast update article.

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.