Milk forecasting forum

Updated 17 March 2026

Milk production is a fundamental driver of market dynamics in Great Britain. We hold a milk forecasting forum twice a year, where representatives from across the industry debate, analyse and discuss the key factors influencing production. Here you can find the latest information shared with the group.

The AHDB Milk Forecasting Forum (MFF) met on 17 March to discuss the factors impacting on future GB milk production. The main points of conversation were focused around:

• Recent trends in herd size and milk yields. In particular, the discussions focused on the likely increase in input costs to affect milk output. Steep increase in fertiliser cost and availability are a concern at a time when most ground work needs to happen
• How will culling (given high beef price) influence the herd size and long-term structural changes?
• Availability of replacement heifers as some of the youngstock boom of 2021/22 will be on their fourth lactation
• How is the income from beef (culls and calves) influencing decision-making?
• Concerns on winter feeding stocks influencing breeding decisions and cow numbers
• Impact of BTV3 on dairy herd and milk production
• Feed market outlook - will bearish costs keep production flowing?
• To what extent the Milk to Feed Price Ratio (currently in the expansion zone) will fall as milk prices reduce will incentivise production during the season. What could be the impact of a rise in feed costs?
• What is the impact of AB pricing mechanisms?
• Will the wet weather earlier this spring delay turnout and milk production, forage quality and availability or will it be more average (or poor?)
• Persistent uncertainty around global geopolitical factors affecting trade flows
• Impact on input costs following the ongoing Iran war and will this prompt a slowdown?
• The potential longer-term impact of environmental legislation on herd size and structure

We will be updating our production forecast later this month (March 2026).

Updated 04 December 2025

GB milk production for the 2025/26 season is forecast to record a new high of 13.05bn litres, 4.9% more than the previous milk year according to the December forecast update.

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