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Projected farmgate milk price changes
Updated 25 February 2026
These projections indicate the expected movements in farmgate milk prices for the next three months, based on movements in the dairy markets.
Overview
- UK wholesale prices saw some recovery in February
- Average price for butter increased 1.9% whilst SMP increased by 12.7%. This resulted in AMPE increasing to 32.8ppl
- Mild cheddar prices increased by 2.1%, resulting in MCVE increasing to 32.7ppl
- The balance of increased prices have therefore resulted in the market value of milk (MMV) increasing to 32.7ppl in February
- Continued strong milk supplies exceeding processing capacity, both domestically and globally, are likely to keep pressure on farmgate milk prices in the coming months
Table 1. Projected farmgate price movements
| Date | Milk Market Value1 | Date (+3 mos) | Projected farmgate price movements | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change from prev month | GB average | Liquid milk (non-aligned) | Manufacturing milk | ||
| Nov-25 | -1.8 | Feb-26 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.9 |
| Dec-25 | -2.0 | Mar-26 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -1.0 |
| Jan-26 | 0.3 | Apr-26 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Feb-26 | 1.3 | May-26 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Cumulative change (latest 3 months)* | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | ||
| Influence of MMV change | 51% | 44% | 52% | ||
Source: AHDB estimates
Additional information
- The projected change is based on the strong link found between movements in the value returned to manufacturers from the market (MMV) and movements in farmgate milk prices
- On average, it was found that a 1ppl change in the MMV will lead to around a 0.5ppl change in the overall GB average milk price, generally three months’ later
- Differences will arise due to the markets in which milk buyers operate as well as the mechanism they use to set the milk price. These will impact the timing of price movements as well as the size of the change
- Other factors which are likely to impact milk prices will be the degree of competition for milk in the market, changes to available processing capacity, import competition and contract negotiations
- [1] The Milk Market Value (MMV) is a weighted average of AMPE and MCVE on a 20:80 basis. This was found to be the best predictor of movements in farmgate prices based on historical data. The analysis was done excluding prices paid on retailer-aligned contracts. The impact of the adjustment of AMPE and MCVE following the 2025 review has been accounted for, and the model updated
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