Projected farmgate milk price changes
Updated 27 September 2021
These projections indicate the expected movements in farmgate milk prices for the next three months, based on movements in the dairy markets.
- AMPE rose 5% in September, as both butter and SMP prices saw month on month increases.
- MCVE also increased in the month, moving up 1.03ppl (3%) as the mild Cheddar price rose by £70/tonne, and whey returns increased by £22/tonne.
- The net impact of these movements was an increase of 1.1ppl in the overall market value of milk (MMV) from the previous month.
- On balance, these latest movements suggest market-related farmgate prices should hold through the remainder of 2021, with some potential to increase.
- The projected change is based on the strong link found between movements in the value returned to manufacturers from the market (MMV) and movements in farmgate milk prices.
- On average, it was found that a 1ppl change in the MMV will lead to around a 0.5ppl change in the overall GB average milk price, generally three months’ later.
- Differences will arise due to the markets in which milk buyers operate as well as the mechanism they use to set the milk price. These will impact the timing of price movements as well as the size of the change.
- Other factors which are likely to impact milk prices will be the degree of competition for milk in the market, changes to available processing capacity, import competition and contract negotiations.
-  The Milk Market Value (MMV) is a weighted average of AMPE and MCVE on a 20:80 basis. This was found to be the best predictor of movements in farmgate prices based on historical data. The analysis was done excluding prices paid on retailer-aligned contracts. The impact of the adjustment of AMPE and MCVE following the 2020 review has been accounted for, and the model updated.
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