Projected farmgate milk price changes

Updated 24 April 2026

This page shows projected changes in UK farmgate milk prices over the next three months, based on recent dairy market movements.

Overview

UK wholesale prices declined in April across all products but SMP
Average price for butter decreased 11% while SMP increased by 1%; this resulted in AMPE decreasing to 35.3ppl. It is notable that butter is now the cheapest it has been since September 2021
Mild Cheddar prices decreased by 3%, while whey prices increased, resulting in MCVE decreasing by 0.1ppl to 34.8ppl
Decreased prices have resulted in the market value of milk (MMV) decreasing to 34.9ppl in April
Continued strong milk supplies exceeding processing capacity, both domestically and globally and pressure on demand from economic shocks resulting from the war in Iran, are likely to keep some pressure on farmgate milk prices in the coming months

Table 1: Projected changes in farmgate milk prices over the next three months (pence per litre)

Reference month	Milk Market Value change¹	Price month (+3 months)	Liquid milk (non‑aligned)	Manufacturing milk	GB average
January 2026	0.3	April 2026	0.1	0.1	0.1
February 2026	1.3	May 2026	0.6	0.7	0.7
March 2026	2.7	June 2026	1.2	1.4	1.4
April 2026	-0.5	July 2026	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2
Cumulative change (latest three months)	N/A	N/A	1.5	1.8	1.8
Influence of Milk Market Value change	N/A	N/A	44%	52%	51%

Source: AHDB estimates

Additional information

The projected change is based on the strong link found between movements in the value returned to manufacturers from the market (MMV) and movements in farmgate milk prices
On average, it was found that a 1ppl change in the MMV will lead to around a 0.5ppl change in the overall GB average milk price, generally three months’ later
Differences will arise due to the markets in which milk buyers operate as well as the mechanism they use to set the milk price. These will impact the timing of price movements as well as the size of the change
Other factors which are likely to impact milk prices will be the degree of competition for milk in the market, changes to available processing capacity, import competition and contract negotiations
The Milk Market Value¹ (MMV) is a weighted average of AMPE and MCVE on a 20:80 basis. This was found to be the best predictor of movements in farmgate prices based on historical data. The analysis was done excluding prices paid on retailer-aligned contracts. The impact of the adjustment of AMPE and MCVE following the 2025 review has been accounted for, and the model updated

Visit the UK farmgate milk prices data and analysis page

Visit the Market Indicators and methodology page

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