Projected farmgate milk price changes

Updated 23 October 2026

This page shows projected changes in UK farmgate milk prices over the next three months, based on recent dairy market movements.

Overview

UK wholesale prices lost some of the recent gains except Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP)
Average prices for butter declined 7% and Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) increased 7%. This resulted in Actual Milk Price Equivalent (AMPE) increasing to 39.3ppl
Mild cheddar prices declined by 1% and whey prices increased by 3% resulting in Milk for Cheese Value Equivalent (MCVE) declining by 0.5ppl to 38.6ppl
Decline in prices have resulted in the market value of milk (MMV) declining to 38.8ppl in October
Whilst GB milk supplies remain in decline at a national level, strong global milk supplies and high stocks of product in stores is likely to weigh on prices in the coming months

Table 1: Projected changes in farmgate milk prices over the next three months (pence per litre)

Reference month	Milk Market Value change1	Price month (+3 months)	Liquid milk (non-aligned)	Manufacturing milk	GB average
Jul-2026	1.3	Oct-2026	0.6	0.7	0.7
Aug-2026	0.6	Nov-2026	0.3	0.3	0.3
Sep-2026	3.5	Dec-2026	1.5	1.8	1.8
Oct-2026	-0.2	Jan-2027	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1
Cumulative change (latest 3 months)*	N/A	N/A	1.7	2.0	2.0
Influence of MMV change	N/A	N/A	44%	52%	51%

Source: AHDB estimates

Additional information

The projected change is based on the strong link found between movements in the value returned to manufacturers from the market (MMV) and movements in farmgate milk prices
On average, it was found that a 1ppl change in the MMV will lead to around a 0.5ppl change in the overall GB average milk price, generally three months’ later
Differences will arise due to the markets in which milk buyers operate as well as the mechanism they use to set the milk price. These will impact the timing of price movements as well as the size of the change
Other factors which are likely to impact milk prices will be the degree of competition for milk in the market, changes to available processing capacity, import competition and contract negotiations
The Milk Market Value¹ (MMV) is a weighted average of AMPE and MCVE on a 20:80 basis. This was found to be the best predictor of movements in farmgate prices based on historical data. The analysis was done excluding prices paid on retailer-aligned contracts. The impact of the adjustment of AMPE and MCVE following the 2025 review has been accounted for, and the model updated

Visit the UK farmgate milk prices data and analysis page

Visit the Market Indicators and methodology page

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