Crop development

The very dry spring this year is likely to have caused damage to many crops. Indeed, winter crop condition ratings have dropped notably from the end of April, while spring cereal ratings are lower than a year ago.

Please note that while the information in this report was captured up to Monday 26 May 2025 for AHDB by RSK ADAS Ltd, the impact of the recent rainfall will not be fully captured in this report. Early indications are that some areas are likely to have had sufficient rain to be upgraded from poor to fair and from fair to good, which offers some room for hope as we look ahead.

After a warm, dry and sunny April for all parts of the UK except for Northern Ireland, much of May was dominated by warm and dry conditions. This raised concerns about a possible drought and associated impacts including reduced crop growth, lower yields, and potentially crop failure.

Crop conditions vary widely depending on rainfall, which has been quite variable across the UK (see below), and soil type. Crop growth stages are 10–14 days ahead of the norm in many areas, driven by warm, sunny conditions and limited rainfall.

Crops on heavier soils with better water retention are holding up better, while those on lighter soils are struggling.

Dry weather has prevented the uptake of nitrogen and other nutrients in many crops, resulting in fewer tillers and shorter plants. Both winter and spring crops are exhibiting stunted growth and look thin in many areas of the UK, which could impact straw availability this year.

Reduced nitrogen uptake also gives rise to concern over potential grain nitrogen and protein levels. One small positive is that the lack of growth has meant that fewer applications of growth regulators has been required.

Spring cereal crops are struggling in the dry weather; in severe cases, they have stalled at the 3–5 leaf stage without tillering. Most crops have progressed rapidly through growth stages but remain thin and open, with poor nutrient uptake in dry soils significantly affecting development. However, early sown spring cereal crops with well-established roots are faring better.

Overall, moisture stress has reduced yield potential, and the effects will become more evident over the next four weeks.

Heavy rainfall returned in the final week of May, bringing much-needed relief and renewed optimism for many. That said, looking ahead is difficult and crop prospects depend heavily on future rainfall. For all crops rainfall in the next four weeks will be critical in determining final yields and quality.

Crop condition definitions

Crop condition was assessed using the USDA approach. This classifies crops into one of five categories, from very poor through to excellent (see details below). The values are given as the percentage of the GB crop area for that crop that falls in each of the categories – regional condition scores are available on the crop reporting dashboard at the bottom of this page.

• Very Poor - Extreme degree of loss to yield potential, complete or near crop failure.
• Poor - Heavy degree of loss to yield potential, which can be caused by excess soil moisture, drought, disease, etc.
• Fair - Less than normal crop condition. Yield loss is a possibility, but the extent is unknown.
• Good - Yield prospects are normal. Moisture levels are adequate and disease, insect damage, and weed pressures are minor.
• Excellent - Yield prospects are above normal. Crops are experiencing little or no stress. Disease, insect damage, and weed pressures are insignificant.

Data on GB crop conditions captured up to Monday 26 May 2025.

Source: AHDB, data captured by RSK ADAS Ltd

Note: Figures may not sum to 100% due to rounding

Wheat

By late May, just 36% of winter wheat crops across the country were in excellent or good condition. This is down sharply from the 60% at the end of April and is now not far above the 31% in late May 2020. However, there is wide variation in crop condition.

An estimated 50% of spring wheat is in good or excellent condition, compared to 60% at this point last year and 77% in May 2023. It also shows a marked drop from a month ago when 67% was in good or excellent condition, with an estimated 1% of crops yet to emerge.

Winter wheat growth stages typically range between GS39 (flag leaf fully emerged) and GS60 (start of flowering), while spring wheat ranges between GS33 (third node detectable) and GS39.

Winter barley

An estimated 48% of winter barley crops are in good to excellent condition at the end of May, now well below last month’s 68% and 61% at this point last year. However, it remains above the 25% recorded in May 2020.

It’s also worth noting that the proportion in poor or very poor condition currently remains low at 8%, with 43% in fair condition. At this point last year, 17% were in poor or very poor condition.

Winter barley development remains notably ahead of recent years, and growth stages typically range from GS60 (start of flowering) to GS75 (medium milk).

Spring barley

The dry conditions have taken a notable toll on spring barley, with 54% of crops now in a good or excellent condition. This is down 20 percentage points from the end of April when with an estimated 1% of crops still to emerge, 74% of crops were in good or excellent condition. The rating is broadly comparable to this point last year when 55% of crops were in good or excellent condition, but notably below May 2022 and 2023.

Across the UK, most growth stages currently range between GS20 (tillering) and GS39 (flag leaf fully visible), though awns are already emerging in some areas.

Oats

Over the past month the proportion of winter oats in good to excellent condition has dropped from 72% to 52%. This rating is level with this point last year, after being well above in March and April. However, 9% of crops are rated as in poor or very condition as of late May 2025, compared to 21% at this point last year.

Currently 42% of spring oat crops are in good or excellent condition, well below the last few years. The proportion of spring oats in good or excellent condition was 73% in May 2024, 73% in May 2023 and 75% in May 2022.

Winter oats are typically between GS39 and GS60, while spring oats currently range between GS20 (tillering) and GS37 (flag leaf just visible).

Winter oilseed rape

Winter oilseed rape (WOSR) has also deteriorated from last month, though to a lesser extent than other crops reported on. Overall, 52% of WOSR is in a good to excellent condition, down from 59% at the end of April. This is still slightly above the 49% seen at this point last year, but below the levels seen in May 2022 (70%) and May 2023 (66%).

Most crops are typically between 50% flowering and 100% potential pod set.

• Use the drop down menu at the top of the first chart to view the crop conditions of a particular crop in each region.
  
  
• Use the drop down menus at the top of the second chart to view the percentage of a crop at each growth stage. The drop down menus can also be used to show the information for a particular region.

Next report scheduled for 27 June 2025 (subject to change).

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.