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Summer 2022 EU short-term outlook: red meat summary
Tuesday, 19 July 2022
The latest EU short-term outlook has been released and here are the highlights:
Beef
- EU beef production to decline -0.5% in 2022
- Continuing high input prices, particularly for feed, may lead to additional slaughtering by the end of the year and lighter slaughter weights in feed-intensive production systems where costs will weigh more on farm profitability
- The EU beef price has risen strongly since early 2021, due to both low supply at EU and global level, and improving demand after COVID-19
- EU beef exports are expected to grow +4% in 2022
- Beef imports are expected to recover by +15% in 2022 due to reopening of domestic food service, faster recovery of supply from Brazil and additional in-quota imports from Argentina
Pork
- EU pig meat production to decline by -4.7% in 2022, pressured by high input costs, environmental concerns, reduced exports and ASF
- Domestic consumption to decrease by -3.3%, averaging 31.7kg per capita
- EU exports to China expected to decrease by -40% in 2022, returning to pre-ASF levels
- Overall, EU pig meat exports are expected to decrease by -9.6% in 2022
- EU pig meat imports from the UK are expected to increase by +34% in 2022
- Total EU pig meat imports are due to increase by +28%
Lamb
- EU lamb prices remain at unprecedented high levels in 2022 due to low domestic supply against sustained demand
- Sheep meat production is expected to remain stable in 2022
- Substantial reduction of the flock will limit production increases in certain EU countries
- High feed prices may lead to additional slaughtering and lighter slaughter weights in feed-intensive production systems
- EU sheep meat exports to increase +2% in 2022, limited by a shortage in supply, continuing trade frictions with the UK and relatively high EU prices
- High shipping costs are expected to limit overall sheep meat import growth to +6% in 2022, assuming no change in trade frictions with the UK
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