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Weekly cattle & sheep market wrap – 05 December 2024
Friday, 6 December 2024
Key points
Prices and throughputs for week ending 30 November
- Strength in prime cattle prices continued across all regions with prime cattle numbers easing.
- Deadweight lamb prices made further gains as numbers remained constrained.
- Beef production forecast revised upwards for 2024 following strong year, but a shaper decline expected in 2025.
- Meat is expected to perform in-line with overall retail demand growth this Christmas.
Cattle
Deadweight prime cattle prices continued to gain strength in the week ending 30 November, with all categories reporting uplifts week on week. R4L specification steers saw strong movement, up 8p to average 550p/kg. Meanwhile, R4L heifers gained 6p to average 547p/kg, while young bulls gained 7p overall to average 521p/kg. The average overall cow price increased by 4p to 362p/kg.
Price increases were seen across all reporting regions with prices recorded in Scotland showing the steepest increases across all cattle categories.
Estimated GB prime cattle slaughter eased by 400 head (-1%) to 33,100 head for the week. However, estimated cow numbers picked up by 300 head (+2%) to 11,700 head.
Our revised UK beef production forecast for 2024 anticipates UK production to reach 933,000 tonnes, up 4% against 2023, driven by a 4% increase in prime cattle slaughter. Looking ahead into 2025, a sharper reduction in supply is expected, with UK prime cattle slaughter anticipated to be back 6% year-on-year.
Sheep
Deadweight lamb prices moved upwards for the fourth consecutive week. In the week ending 30 November, the GB new season SQQ averaged 686p/kg, an increase of almost 25p compared to the week previous. This movement has meant the value was 98p above the same week last year.
Estimated GB clean sheep slaughter recorded marginal movement week on week, up just 1,000 head to 213,200 head for the week ending 30 November. This kept estimated throughputs back 19% year-on-year. Storm Bert caused wet weather and flooding in some parts of the country which may have contributed to suppressed numbers.
Our Christmas 2024 predictions anticipate that overall retail demand will outstrip 2023 by 20%, with meat expected to perform in line with overall growth. Turkey remains the most popular meat option for Christmas Day, however 23% of consumers plan to buy two meat options for the Christmas meal, and 10% plan to buy three meat options (YouGov/AHDB Pulse November 2024).
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