Autumn 2024 EU short-term outlook: red meat summary

The most recent EU short-term outlook has been released. These are the key highlights for the red meat sectors:

Beef

• EU beef production increased by 3% in the first half of 2024, following increased slaughtering due to poor grazing conditions and growing demand from export markets
• Tighter supplies continue to support prices, along with moderate feed costs aiding better margins for finishers
• However, EU beef production is expected to decline by 0.5% by the end of 2024, following a shortage in animals available for slaughter
• The decline (-1%) in EU beef production is likely to continue year-on-year (YOY) due to a reduction in cattle numbers on the continent
• Consumer prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply. Consumption is expected to decline by 1.7% YOY in 2024
• EU beef exports grew by 17% YOY in the first half of 2024. This was largely driven by increased exports to Turkey. Exports are forecast to increase by 10% YOY by the end of 2024
• In 2024 (Jan-Jun), imports declined by 2% YOY, with Brazilian beef imports down 15% and UK imports down 0.2%

Lamb

• In the first half of 2024, EU sheep production declined by 7.4% YOY. This was largely driven by the continued structural decline in sheep flocks, combined with poor weather and grass availability
• In total, EU sheep production is expected to fall by 5% in 2024 and see further reductions in 2025 (-1%)
• Disease outbreaks in Western Europe are likely to further impact the availability of animals for slaughter in the remainder of 2024
• EU sheep meat prices remain high, resulting in a drop in consumption following inflationary pressures, with declines in 2025 of -0.6% YOY
• In the first half of 2024, EU sheep meat exports declined by 14%, largely due to reduced exports to the UK, Switzerland, and Middle Eastern countries
• EU sheep meat prices remain uncompetitive on the global market, with exports forecast to fall by 10% by the end of 2024
• EU imports of sheep meat have declined, falling by 10% in the first half of 2024, with the UK falling by 17% and New Zealand by 2%
• However, by the end of 2024 imports are forecast to grow by 2% YOY and are set to remain at this rate in 2025, following a recovery in production in Australia and New Zealand

Pork

• Pork production is expected to decline by 0.5% by the end of 2024, and a further 0.2% in 2025
• In the first half of 2024, EU pork production grew by 1.7% YOY, with the largest growth seen in Poland (+9%), Hungary (+8.3) and Germany (+0.9%)
• Over the same period pork production in Spain declined by 0.2% and slaughter declined in Denmark. However, this was outweighed by an increase in carcase weights resulting in a growth of 2.5%
• Increase in EU supply combined with limited demand led to a drop in domestic prices in May 2024. However, feed and piglet prices remained low in the first half of 2024, allowing for positive margins
• African swine fever outbreaks remain a key risk to production and large uncertainty for the sector
• Consumption remained stable in the first half of 2024. However, no seasonal rise took place during the summer months as typically seen
• In the first half of 2024 exports fell by 6% YOY, as EU prices remain uncompetitive on the global market, limiting exports
• Competitive pricing in Brazil and the USA have limited exports to high-value markets such as Japan and Australia. However, growth was seen in lower-value export markets such as the Philippines and Vietnam
• EU pork exports are forecast to be down by 2.5% YOY in 2024 and may decline further in 2025 by 2%
• EU pig meat imports were up 1% YOY in the first half of 2024
• Imports are heavily dominated by UK products, accounting for 2/3 of total EU pork imports. However, these were down 2.2% in the first half of 2024
• Imports from Chile grew by 173% following the new FTA between Chile and the EU

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