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Autumn 2022 EU short-term outlook: red meat summary
Thursday, 13 October 2022
The latest EU short-term outlook has been released and here are the highlights for the red meat sector:
Beef
- Beef production is expected to decline by 0.6% for the remainder of 2022
- Additional slaughterings are anticipated towards the end of the year due to shortages of forage and continuing high feed prices, with lighter carcase weights likely
- Production is expected to stabilise in 2023, if feed availability returns to normal levels
- Exports of beef are expected to decrease by 1% due to limited domestic availability and high prices
- High prices are causing a shift in trade partners with higher value markets are growing, whilst other markets are contracting
- EU imports are expected to continue to recover during the remainder of 2022, ending the year up by an estimated 25%, driven by the reopening of food service and increased growth in imports from the UK, Brazil, and Argentina
Pork
- EU pig meat production is expected to decrease by 5% in 2022
- Input prices will likely remain high through 2023 and combined with the continued impact of ASF, there will be a sustained decrease in production by 0.7% in 2023
- Domestic demand is estimated to decrease by 1.9% to average 32kg per capita in 2022 and is expected to stabilise at this level for 2023
- Exports are estimated to decrease by 17% in 2022, and a further 3% in 2023 largely due to China reducing imports from the EU back to levels seen in 2017/2018
- EU imports from the UK have not yet recovered to pre-Brexit levels, however overall imports are still expected to increase by 27% in 2022, and 17% in 2023
Lamb
- Prices are expected to remain high due to low domestic supply against sustained high demand within the EU
- Production is anticipated to increase 0.5% by the end of 2022, high feed prices and lack of forage availability will likely trigger increased slaughterings, albeit at lighter weights, however substantial reduction in the flock over recent years in certain EU countries will limit production growth.
- EU exports are expected to decrease by 3% in 2022 and stabilise at a lower level in 2023, due to limited export opportunities driven by high EU prices as a result of a shortage of domestic supply and continuing trade friction
- Imports are continuing to increase and are expected to reach a 10% growth in 2022, with an additional 4% anticipated for 2023
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