Weekly cattle and sheep market wrap - 18 July 2024

Key points

Prices for week ending 13 July

• The GB deadweight all-prime average cattle price has increased by 1p to 479p/kg, as prime slaughterings increase slightly.
• The GB deadweight SQQ fell by 33p to 646p/kg, leaving the price just 15p higher than at the same point in 2023.

Cattle

GB deadweight prime cattle prices have seen support over the most recent reporting period, with the overall all-prime average increasing by 1p to 479p/kg, despite a slight (400 head) increase to estimated slaughterings. The price increase was driven by steers, meanwhile heifer values remained largely static at 479p/kg overall.

Cow prices remained relatively stable for the week at 362p/kg, with AHDB’s estimated slaughterings highlighting some moderate increases in kill from the previous week (+2%).

Looking to the wider market, the most recent HMRC trade data has been released (up to May), with the latest import data showing a 3% reduction in fresh/frozen beef volumes month-on-month. Price differentials between UK and Ireland remain relatively stable, hovering currently at 47p/kg difference, despite widening slightly in the most recent weeks data, this remains one of the narrowest price differentials seen since May 2023. This factor, alongside a stable retail demand picture, has seemingly been keeping the market in relative balance over recent weeks, with wholesale outlets also reflecting the point of balance seen in the beef market. Interestingly, HMRC export data continues to show a robust performance for beef volumes, up 11% in the year-to-date, which may be helping to support the category.

As we look to the remainder of 2024 and what this means for the beef market, we have this week published our mid-year beef outlook. Updating our forecasted figures across 2024 and into 2025, take a look here for further details.

Sheep

Across the same period, the GB deadweight new season SQQ averaged 646p/kg, down 33p (-5%) on the week and sitting just 15p above the same point in 2023. Estimated kill increased slightly on the week (+4,200 head) but remains well back through the year-to-date (-9%).

The sheep trade appears to be finding stability in certain quarters, where some market reports are suggesting an emerging, more balanced market picture compared to the previous few weeks.

The international market continues to offer difficulties, as wholesale quotes have fallen further over the last week, which combined with the current movements in exchange rates, paints a challenging picture in the export marketplace. Recently released HMRC trade data for May, reinforces this challenge, with sheep meat export volumes back 3% on the month. Imports, meanwhile, continue to demonstrate a differing trend, with increased volumes entering the UK marketplace in our latest data to May. Year-to-date, New Zealand volumes are currently sitting 53% higher than 2023, however, if we utilise 2022 as a more comparable year, these imports are close to equivalent (2% higher).

With reports of demand levels remaining subdued and the current trading imbalance, the tight domestic supply picture continues to be the key watchpoint in the current market.

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