Beef market outlook

February 2025

Key points

• Reduced domestic cattle supply is expected to contribute to lower beef production levels in 2025. UK beef production is forecast to fall 5% year-on-year to 885,000 tonnes
• Domestic beef consumption is forecast to grow marginally, driven by retail as foodservice stays stable. Everyday cuts like mince are expected to perform well as consumers remain price conscious
• Reflective of forecast dynamics in production and consumption levels, we anticipate growth in the UK’s requirement for imported beef in 2025, by 12% versus 2024. Following a stronger year, exports are forecast to reduce by 7% in 2025, pressured by supply constraints
• Forecast supply and demand changes would point to domestic farmgate cattle prices being supported throughout 2025. However, the price sensitivity of consumers and the mix of cuts purchased will be crucial to carcase values overall

Overall 2024 was a strong year for the beef market. The UK produced 934,000 tonnes of beef and veal through the year, up nearly 4% from 2023. Combined with a 5% uplift in beef imports, this contributed to greater supply on the market. Despite this, Great Britain's (GB) finished cattle prices continued to set records in 2024. Consumer demand was robust, with slight growth in retail being met with a relatively stable volume through foodservice. Meanwhile exports increased, supported by demand from the continent.

Source: AHDB, Defra, HMRC, Trade Data Monitor LLC.

Supply, meaning supplies available for consumption, is a figure based on Production + Imports - Exports. It is not a direct measurement of demand.

Looking to 2025, supply is going to be a crucial determinant of the market. Despite continued reductions in national cow numbers, beef production levels in recent years have been generally supported. Factors including growth in the number of beef cross calves born to the dairy herd, and greater slaughter of heifers and cows, have been key drivers.

Reductions in national production are forecast in 2025, however, following historical contraction in the core supply base and strong production levels in 2024. A range of challenges are impacting beef producers. Factors such as underlying business profitability, declining direct payments and low uptake of new agriculture policy schemes are all discussed in our beef and lamb 2030 series. These factors are all expected to contribute to supply constraints in 2025.

Prime cattle slaughter

The number of prime cattle slaughtered in the UK during 2024 stood at 2.12 million head, up by 4% (82,400 head) from 2023. An increase in heifer slaughter was the main driver, while steer slaughter grew to a lesser extent. Young bull numbers were stable overall.

Cattle inventory data from the start of the year pointed to a 1% increase in the number of prime animals available for beef production in 2024. This was influenced by increases in dairy-beef calf registrations in previous years. Data suggests that 37% of prime cattle slaughtered in GB in 2024 were classed as dairy-beef, up from 35% in 2023, and up from 28% in 2019.

A combination of market factors such as a strong beef price, supply chain sustainability targets (such as reducing age at slaughter) and producer sentiment may have facilitated the greater-than-forecast prime cattle slaughter seen in 2024.

Looking ahead, factoring the latest cattle inventory data against year-to-date slaughter figures suggests that prime cattle availability will reduce in 2025. We forecast that 2025 prime cattle slaughter will total 1.99 million head, a 6% (127,000 head) reduction compared to 2024.

Source: Defra, AHDB

A key caveat to the forecasts is heifer slaughter, which is partly influenced by producer intentions around stocking levels. If reductions in the breeding herd accelerate ahead of expectations, this puts more would-be replacement heifers into the prime beef supply pool and supports production in the short to medium term. If stabilisation − and especially growth − in the national breeding herd occurs, this takes prime heifers out of the beef supply chain.

Calf registration figures suggest that national cattle supplies will continue to reduce into 2026. In 2023, the number of calves registered for beef production (excluding dairy heifers) showed the steepest reduction since 2018 (-2.5%). This was because reductions in suckler-born calves outweighed growth in dairy-beef calf registrations. Reductions continued in 2024, with registrations of calves for beef production down by a further 1.8% annually in the year to November.

Source: British Cattle Movement Service, AHDB

UK cow slaughter totalled 623,000 head in 2024, up by 1.8% against 2023 and higher than forecasts from earlier in the year. Data from the British Cattle Movement Service suggests that this was driven by an uplift in slaughter of beef cows, as dairy cow slaughter remained largely stable.

The national cow herd – particularly the suckler herd – is expected to remain in a state of contraction, pressured by factors including cost of production, government policy (notably the reduction of direct payments) and general market volatility.

As such, cow slaughter in 2025 is forecast to fall by 2% (15,000 head) from 2024 to 608,000 head.

Beef production

The above slaughter forecasts are expected to contribute to a 5% reduction in UK beef production in 2025, at 885,000 tonnes. Average prime cattle carcase weights were largely stable in 2024 but are assumed to maintain the longer-term trend of gentle reduction, reflecting an increasing proportion of dairy crossed animals and native breeds.

Source: Defra, AHDB

In 2024, total beef volumes were flat versus 2023. A +0.5% growth for retail was counteracted by a decline in both dining out and takeaway volumes (AHDB/Kantar, 52 w/e 29 December 2024).

For 2025, we expect a level of economic uncertainty, as detailed in our economic outlook. We expect business confidence will remain low, and this will likely feed down to shoppers. After multiple years of overcoming challenges and reconsidering how to spend their money, we expect any changes in shopping behaviour to be gradual.

For beef volumes, we expect a return to volume growth in 2025, with total beef volumes forecast to be +1%.

For more data and latest trends for total beef and cut specifics, see our retail and foodservice dashboards.

*AHDB estimate as of January 2025 Figures rounded to the nearest percentage

Source: AHDB

In retail, everyday cuts like mince are expected to do well while shoppers continue to focus on low price, easy-to-cook options for in-home evening meals. The average preparation time for an evening meal reduced from 34 minutes in 2021 to 31 minutes in 2024 (Kantar Usage, evening meal, 52 w/e 12 May 2024 vs May 2021), showing that convenient, quick-to-cook beef offerings are also expected to fare well.

In a YouGov/AHDB Pulse survey, 90% of consumers stated that diet was important in contributing to their overall health (December 2024). Also one in three households are claiming that they are very concerned about ultra-processed foods (Kantar Nutrition Concern Questionnaire, 52 w/e 12 May 2024). Consumer demand may shift towards primary beef cuts rather than processed offerings as a result of these trends.

Retail promotions on beef are likely to be lower than in previous years, leading to smaller peaks at key occasions such as summer BBQs and Christmas. Promotional effort that is landed is likely to focus on offerings such as dine-in deals: this aims to encourage in-home consumption rather than out-of-home dining, thus benefiting added-value and ready meal offerings.

Within the out-of-home market, dining out is forecast to remain stable versus 2024, with consumers focusing their choice of meal on less expensive items such as burgers and moving away from expensive cuts like steaks. Takeaway volumes are forecast to decline slightly year-on-year in 2025 but to remain at an elevated level in comparison to pre-Covid years. Menu trends show that bringing innovative offerings and new flavours to menus will remain important to encourage spend and build perception around the taste and enjoyment of beef.

The trend of enhancing cheaper cuts like burgers with additional ingredients such as sauces is likely to continue in 2025. A lower number of sporting events in the summer may impact out-of-home volumes for beef, so promotions and loyalty offerings will be key to maintain engagement through the summer months.

How might the outlook for beef demand be improved?

The beef outlook might be boosted further if the industry:

• Promotes tasty and versatile beef dishes which play on value for money and on using cheaper cuts such as mince. Inspire meals that are family friendly, filling and reduce waste with batch cooking
• Offers inspirational dinners such as restaurant-quality dine-in deals to encourage consumers to trade up tiers

• Addresses health concerns by communicating the health benefits of beef, such as B12, iron and protein
• Encourages consumers with the right messaging in store, online, on packs and foodservice
• In the longer term, looks to maintain and build consumer trust, demonstrating where farming values (animal welfare, environmental stewardship and expertise) are shared with consumers. See our consumer reputational landscape hub for more information

AHDB has a range of marketing activities planned for the year, including the new Let’s Eat Balanced campaign. Please visit our marketing pages for more information. For more insight around consumer demand, visit our retail and consumer pages.

Imports

From January to November 2024, the volume of beef imported into the UK rose by 5% year-on-year to 333,000 tonnes (carcase weight equivalent, including fresh, frozen and processed beef). Volumes from the UK’s largest supplier – Ireland – drove the increase, up by 11% on the year. The wide price differential between British and Irish cattle prices that opened up during the year was likely a key driver of increased trade, as well as robust domestic UK demand for beef.

Meanwhile, imports reduced from other key markets, including Brazil, Poland and Germany. Shipments grew from Australia and New Zealand, but from much smaller bases. Each country accounted for between 1% and 2% of total UK beef import volumes during the 11-month period.

The outlook for reduced domestic production and stable consumption points to an increased import requirement in 2025. We forecast that beef imports will increase by 12% from 2024 levels to meet the forecast consumption levels.

Exports

2024 was a stronger year for UK beef exports: volumes for January to November were up by 8% year-on-year at 132,000 tonnes. Volumes to the EU increased, namely France and the Netherlands. Shipments to markets further afield experienced growth too, particularly Canada and Hong Kong.

Export growth came despite the strengthening price position of UK beef on the European − and indeed the world − market. Beef supply across the EU grew in 2024, driven by an increase in both production and import volumes. Despite this, European cattle prices held through most of the year and increased in the third quarter, suggesting strong demand for cattle and beef. Domestic demand has reportedly been robust, and the EU has grown its exports to markets such as Turkey and Algeria, and this has helped keep markets supported.

For 2025, we expect UK beef export volumes to be constrained by the anticipated market dynamics of reduced domestic supply and stable consumer demand. Export volumes are forecast to reduce by 7% compared to 2024.

Cattle price outlook

Several factors highlighted in this market outlook suggest GB cattle prices could be supported in 2025. Forecast cattle supply reductions − domestically, in Ireland, across Europe and indeed globally − are expected to drive competition for supply generally.

The outlook for stable UK consumption levels could add further support to overall demand. However, the price evolution of beef at retail will be a key watchpoint for the price-conscious consumer, and the balance of cuts purchased will be crucial to determining overall carcase values.

Market balance table

The below table shows the actual and forecast balance sheet for the UK beef market.

*Carcase weight equivalent, calculated from production, trade, and including changes in stocks. Totals may not sum due to rounding.

Source: Defra, HMRC compiled by Trade Data Monitor LLC, AHDB