Beef and lamb 2030 series: The long-term outlook for domestic GB cattle and sheep production

This series of analyses explores how beef and sheep meat production levels in Great Britain may change by 2030. We present likely scenarios for potential future cattle and sheep numbers and explore the factors that underpin production.

What could a changing supply base mean for the beef and lamb sectors?

We examine how our domestic beef and lamb supplies are likely to change by 2030. The structural changes in our breeding herds and flocks that underpin these movements are an important consideration for the entire industry.

The implications of our forecasts affect not only farm business decisions but have implications for the supply chain. They also affect the wider ambitions of the sector, including discussions surrounding food security and self-sufficiency.

Our analyses present the current beef and lamb production landscape and appraise opportunities and risks for supply out to 2030.

Beef 2030 supply

Using three scenarios − baseline, best-case and worst-case − we model likely future supply of slaughter cattle and beef production levels in Great Britain. We utilise a further scenario − best case + − to offer a realistic alternative production forecast, factoring in continued improvement in efficiency metrics such as number of live calves per 100 cows.

Assumptions are made for the following variables:

• Size of the GB dairy and suckler cow herd
• Average rearing rates
• Carcase weights

Analysis of the 2030 beef supply modelling coming soon.

Lamb 2030 supply

Using three scenarios − baseline, best-case and worst-case − we model future supply of sheep for slaughter and sheep meat production levels in Great Britain. We utilise a further scenario − best case + − to offer a realistic alternative production forecast, factoring in continued improvement in efficiency metrics.

 Projections and assumptions are made for the following variables:

• Size of the GB breeding ewe flock
• Average rearing rates
• Carcase weights

Analysis of the 2030 lamb supply modelling coming soon.

The long-term outlook for beef and sheep meat consumption

This analysis investigates consumption of beef and lamb in the UK and worldwide. Macro trends are explored, such as environmental considerations, and we suggest how these feed into long-term projections for domestic and export demand.

Farm business performance and producer confidence

The grazing livestock sector is in a delicate economic state. The average business is having to subsidise production from other sources of income – including direct payments. This analysis examines long-term farm business income and producer confidence.

Beef and lamb processing capacity and supply chains

Beef and lamb production is dependent on infrastructure for slaughtering and processing. Using abattoir numbers and throughput data, we investigate the trends of beef and lamb supply chains.

Analysis of beef and lamb processing, supply chains and capacity coming soon.

Industry and herd performance

The demographics of the sector are changing, underpinned by a variety of on-and-off farm drivers. We explore these recent trends and some of the on-farm cost pressures that underpin them.

More information on industry and herd performance coming soon.

Government policy and its impact on business

The agricultural policy landscape is changing in the UK. The beef and lamb sector was the most dependent on direct payments under the EU and will therefore be the most exposed to these changes. This analysis examines the long-term economic influences on the beef and lamb sector, including policy change, international trade, self-sufficiency and food security.

More in-depth analysis of policy background and business impact coming soon.

Further resources

Characteristics of top-performing farms

While future supply can be influenced by external factors, on-farm efficiency and profitability is a key element of business resilience. Our Characteristics of top-performing farms reports show what the top quartile of UK farms do differently to achieve greater profitability.