Defra’s June survey confirms a further drop in England cattle and sheep populations

Defra’s annual June livestock survey reveals that sheep and cattle populations in England are at a record low, since the Defra census began.

Key points:

• The total sheep population declined by 4.3% year-on-year, now standing at 13.8 million head.
• The total cattle population saw a 2.0% reduction to 5.0 million head, driven by declines in the beef breeding herd.
• The most significant declines were seen in breeding female numbers, within both cattle and sheep populations.

Sheep

As of the 1st June 2024, the English sheep flock has experienced a 4.3% decline year-on-year, equivalent to a reduction of 620,000 head. This brings the total sheep population down to 13.8 million head.

Source: Defra

The total population decline was mainly driven by the breeding flock, which fell by 5.6% (390,000 head). Declines were also seen in the ‘other sheep and lambs category’ (-3.1%), this consists of lambs under 1 year old, rams and other sheep 1 year and over.

Most notably, there was a 11% fall in ewes intended for first time breeding. This is likely to be influenced by ewe lambs and shearlings slaughtered in the spring, incentivised by market conditions.

Number of sheep in England 1 June 2024

Source: Defra

The total female breeding flock now stands at 660,000 head, the lowest level since 2011. As a result, the lamb market outlook forecasts a decline of the lamb crop for the 2024 – 25 season (March - March).

The continued firm prices had raised questions as to whether stock has been held back this year, yet the Defra figures show that the population of lambs under 1 year of age declined by 3.5%. We await data from other devolved nations to further build an up-to-date UK picture.

Cattle

The Defra survey revealed a contraction in the total cattle population to 5.0 million head, 2% below the previous year and the lowest level in England recorded in the June survey. Pressure on margins and the recent robust beef prices are likely to have incentivised some culling.

The breeding herd fell by 2.2%, to total 1.7 million head. The dairy breeding herd saw a marginal decline of 0.6%. The beef breeding herd drove the decline, having fallen by 5.1%, accounting for 32,000 head. We anticipate these trends to continue from recent analysis.

Source: Defra

While male numbers over 2 years of age increased, overall, male cattle numbers declined by 2.6%. The decline of males under the age of 2 is likely to be linked to the changes in Dairy/Beef systems over recent years.

We will be completing detailed BCMS analysis, exploring beef trends in greater depth in the coming weeks.

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