What does climate change mean for UK arable farms?

Climate change already affects UK cereals and oilseeds. Laura Underdown discusses how extreme weather impacts production and what steps farmers can take to mitigate the risks.

We’ve just seen the third warmest spring on record in the UK (and the warmest for England and Wales), with the hottest May-day temperature of 35.1°C recorded at Kew Gardens in London.

Today, the Met Office issued a red warning for extreme heat for Wednesday and Thursday, with the record for the hottest June day forecast to be broken (potentially by some margin).

In July 2022, the UK saw its highest-ever temperature of 40.3°C recorded in Lincolnshire.

In our changing climate, we should not be surprised to see weather records broken.

Generally, we expect to see:

• Greater heat extremes
• Warmer and wetter autumns and winters
• Drier springs and summers
• More intense and unpredictable rainfall events
• Changing pest and disease dynamics

Scientists are already linking weather events with crop impacts.

For example, a recent analysis from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimated that relatively poor harvests in 2024 and 2025 wiped out production equivalent to 13% of England's wheat, barley and oat area (it considered both yields and crop areas).

The ECIU also estimated that three relatively poor UK harvests this decade resulted in a cumulative weather-related loss of £2.3bn (averaged across cereals and oilseed rape).

These harvests were associated with extreme rainfall in 2020 and 2024 and extreme heat and drought in 2025.

For example, extreme wet conditions hampered autumn drilling, establishment and crop growth, especially in consistently waterlogged ground.

In 2025, drought saw the estimated average production revenue (across crops) fall by 19% compared with UK historical long-term averages.

However, even in challenging years, there are often winners and losers.

For example, some very strong winter oilseed rape yields in 2025 contributed to a healthy overall average of 3.7 t/ha (although the overall area was relatively small).

However, drought contributed to significant yield variation across the UK. A storm also led to some seed losses in the field.

While precise climate-related loss figures can be debated, extreme weather clearly impacts production and profitability.

Investment in system resilience will help crops weather such storms.

For example, by:

• Diversifying rotations
• Growing drought-tolerant crops and varieties
• Investing in soil and water management
• Monitoring and responding to shifting pest and disease pressures

In relation to the first point, the changing climate (e.g. warmer temperatures) may create opportunities for new crops in some regions.

On the last point, we know that milder winters favour the survival of many pests and pathogens.

We are already seeing shifts in the timing, severity and spread of threats, including cabbage stem flea beetle, septoria tritici and aphid-spread Barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV).

We are also likely to see new pest (insect, weed and disease) species.

Integrated pest management (IPM) strategies will need to adapt to both emerging and new threats.

But there is a lot to unpack.

In future articles, we will delve into the biology of key pest species and consider how weather shifts could impact their populations.

We recently released climate resilience on-farm action planners to help you understand the risk of climate change to your farm business.

The planning tools can build your climate awareness and guide the development of informed and proportionate action.

The resources are simple and practical and will not add unnecessary burden to already stretched businesses.

Available for cereals and oilseeds (and livestock enterprises), the planners work through the six key climate hazards:

• High summer temperatures and heat extremes
• Drier spring/summers and low rainfall
• Changing winter temperatures
• Wetter autumns/winters and extreme rainfall
• Storms and wind
• Rising sea levels (relevant for coastal and low-lying land)

For each hazard, they help you think through your farm’s exposure and vulnerabilities.

Finally, they will help you discover what you're already doing well and what actions (short, medium, and longer-term) could add resilience.

• Review the hazards, impacts, and actions
• Prioritise using the risk scoring sheet
• Build your action plan

To fully plan and build resilience, the industry needs long-term policy certainty and continued investment in crop research and breeding, climate advice and resilience measures, such as water storage and soil health improvements.

To help get farms ready, there are funding grants and schemes for farmers and landowners.