Global grains saw another week of high volatility last week. Though prices began to pull back as we headed towards the end of the week, on some profit-taking. A bull market needs new news to keep climbing, especially at such high levels.
We are fast approaching harvest 22 and looking now to harvest 23 for cropping decisions, but the cost and margin picture looks very different to this time last year. UK feed wheat new crop futures (Nov-22) closed yesterday at £340.10/t. This is almost double the price from this time last year, where new crop futures (Nov-21) closed at £178.75/t (18 May 2021).
High input costs are front and foremost of growers minds. UK produced Ammonium Nitrate (AN) increased 182% between Jun-21 and Mar-22, to a price of £839.00/t. With the outlook for natural gas prices (the feed stock for AN) well supported, driven by the war in Ukraine, it is well to assume that fertiliser prices could stay strong for the foreseeable future.