EU medium term outlook sets expectations to 2035: Red meat market update

Sustainability concerns are set to take a more prominent role in shaping European red meat production with fewer animals and more extensive farming practices, alongside reduced consumption.

Beef

Beef

EU beef production is forecast to decline by 615,000 tonnes (t) to 6.1 million tonnes (Mt) between now and 2035 (-9.2% compared with the 2023–2025 average).

Contributing to this decline, the EU cow herd is expected to decrease by 2.85 million head (-9.7%) by 2035. This will be primarily driven by a fall in suckler cow numbers, which are projected to decrease to 9.24 million head by 2035 (-8.5%).

These trends reflect farmer uncertainty around national and EU policy. However, eco schemes under the new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and a positive price outlook due to tight supply could help to slow the production decline.

The average slaughter weight for cattle is expected to continue steadily growing over the next decade, due to improvements in herd and feed management.

Consumption

EU per capita beef consumption is expected to decline to 6.1 kg by 2035 (-0.57 kg per capita versus the 2023–25 average). Beef remains at a high price point compared to alternative meats, which is likely to weigh on consumption levels over the next decade. If production falls as forecasted, it is likely to also impact availability of products which may further contribute to lowered consumption.

Prices

The beef price is expected to remain high in the coming years, at around EUR 7 000/t by 2035, underpinned by short supply and increasing production costs.

Imports

EU beef imports are expected to increase between now and 2035 at a rate of +1.0% per year, due to lower production across the EU creating higher demand for imported product.

Exports

Between 2023–2025 and 2035 world beef import demand is forecast to increase by 1.1 Mt, driven by higher demand in China, Vietnam, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. An increase in demand for beef is also expected to come from EU trade partners (UK, the Balkans, the Middle East and north Africa).

However, beef exports from the EU are forecast to continue to fall annually to 2035, by 0.8% per year. This is due to the combination of declining EU supply and increased price competition from other export destinations, making EU product less competitive on the global market.

Live exports are predicted to decline by 3.2% per year over the next decade because of reduced supply and animal welfare concerns surrounding long-distance travel.

Sheep

Production

Production of sheep and goat meat is projected to decrease to 539,000 t by 2035, falling by 0.7% per year over the next decade. This is mainly to be driven by production declines in the countries that joined the EU before 2004 such as Ireland and Spain (where production is projected to fall by 0.9% per year).

Sheep and goat meat production is expected to remain concentrated in a few EU countries, mainly in Spain, Greece, France, Ireland and Romania.

Disease outbreaks could cause lower production levels from 2025–2035. However, coupled income support and a continuation of high prices could begin to slow the long-term declines seen over the last 15 years.

Consumption

EU sheep and goatmeat consumption is projected to remain steady at 0.85 kg per capita until 2035, with traditions and religious festivities underpinning demand. An expected increase in the Muslim population on the continent will also likely lend support to demand for sheep meat.

Prices

EU prices for sheep and goat meat could reach around EUR 9750/t by 2035. A tighter supply forecast coupled with consistent demand is likely to support price growth in coming years.

Imports

The EU are expected to increase sheep and goat meat imports by 1% per year to 2035. Imports from Australia and New Zealand are likely to drive these increases, with their lower cost of production a likely driver of increased imports to the continent.

The free-trade agreements between the UK and Australia could cause more UK imports from this destination, which could lead to an increase in exports of UK sheep meat to the EU which has been seen in 2025.

EU imports of sheep meat from New Zealand could increase in the coming years, as they look to diversify their export portfolio to higher value destinations.

Exports

EU exports of sheep and goatmeat are forecast to stabilise at around 33,400 t by 2035, after several years of declining export volumes caused by high domestic prices and production declines.

EU sheep and goatmeat exports to the UK could decline as a result of UK trade agreements with more price competitive suppliers.

EU exports of live sheep and goats are forecast to decline to 45,300 t by 2035 (-1.6% per year). Animal welfare concerns related to long distance transport and increased financial risks are key drivers of this decline.

Pigs

Production

Pig production is expected to reduce due to the introduction of stricter animal welfare and environmental regulations in certain EU countries, coupled with declining export opportunities especially from China.

Between 2025 and 2035, EU pigmeat production is forecast to fall by 0.75% per year (1.54 Mt).

It is assumed in this forecast that although African swine fever remains present in the EU, there are no major or uncontrolled outbreaks.

Consumption

By 2035, EU per capita pigmeat consumption is projected to decline from 23.3 kg a year to 21.8 kg a year.

Despite pig meat remaining the cheapest meat type in the EU, environmental and societal concerns are said to continue to reduce consumer appetite. Additionally, the higher fat content of pigmeat may also be seen as less favourable by consumers.

Imports and exports

The historical trend of declining pigmeat imports is expected to continue, at an average rate of 1.2% per year.

Although global pig meat demand is projected as stable, EU pigmeat exports are forecast to decrease by 1.0% per year by 2035, a loss of -280,000 t.

With production improving in China and Vietnam, key destination for EU product, the EU will look to other opportunities in other regions, such as Africa. However, this will be faced with increased competition from the USA, Canada and Brazil, leading to the EU’s share of global pigmeat exports declining from 28.5% to 26.0%.

The EU forecast that the UK will become the largest export destination for EU pigmeat.

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