EU Medium Term Outlook: Red Meat

The latest medium-term outlook has been released by the EU, looking out to 2032. The outlook is available here or read our summary of the key takeaways below:

Beef

• Beef production is expected to fall, with EU gross beef production predicted to continue declining to 0.6 million tonnes (-9%) by 2032 driven by a decline in the cow herd of 2.8million head (-9.1%).
• A slight decline in consumption is expected to continue across the next ten years. By 2032, per capita beef consumption may drop from 10.3kg to 9.5kg (-7.8%).
• EU beef and veal exports are due to grow by 2032 (+1.1% per year), mainly thanks to continuing demand from existing trade partners. Future trade agreements between the UK and Australia/US (not accounted for in the EU baseline) might change this picture drastically.
• EU beef imports rebounded in 2022, following Brexit and Covid 19 implications. In the coming years, imports will slowly increase and reach close to pre-COVID levels by 2032.
• Beef prices are expected to stabilise around €4/kg.

Lamb

• Contrary to the declining trends of recent years, EU sheep and goat meat production is expected to increase slightly (0.2% per year) until 2032 (up to 645,000 tonnes). Coupled income support, a tight global supply-demand situation and favourable prices for producers should support this trend.
• Production will remain concentrated in a few select EU countries.
• EU per capita consumption is expected to remain relatively stable by 2032 (around 1.3 kg per year).
• After 2 years of low exports due to Brexit and high domestic prices, EU sheep meat exports are expected to catch up in 2023-2024 and reach 60,000 tonnes by 2032.
• UK imports currently represent almost half of EU meat exports and should remain stable at most. There is a lot of uncertainty on the possible impact of trade agreements between the UK and Australia/New Zealand on EU and UK markets.
• EU imports will slightly decline to 125,000 tonnes by 2032. Even though the EU is still an attractive export destination, it is predicted Australia and New Zealand will focus more on Asian markets.
• After high prices in 2021 and 2022, EU prices are to start a downward trend, but are likely to remain significantly higher than before COVID-19.

Pork

• EU pig meat consumption is projected to decrease by 0.4 % per year, from 32.4 kg per capita in 2022 to 31.1 kg in 2032 (down 4% over the whole period).
• EU pig meat production is projected to fall by 1% per year in 2022-2032 (2.2 million tonnes over the whole period).
• Pig meat exports are expected to decline as Chinese production recovers, with China’s production capacity expected to recover sooner than initially expected. It will therefore drastically reduce China’s reliance on imports, despite further ASF outbreaks still occurring.
• As a result, while EU exports increased by 2.8 % per year in 2012-2022, they are projected to decrease by 3.2 % per year in 2022-2032.
• Pig meat prices are expected to remain contained after the price spike in 2022. However, import demand outside China, continuing outbreaks of ASF in Asia and an adjusting domestic production could slow down the decrease in prices until 2025.
• EU prices are then expected to remain around €5/kg until 2032.

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