US pork market update

US pork production so far this year has reached 9.11million tonnes, down 2% year on year. This is due to lower inventories of pigs and reduced farrowing’s with September 2022 seeing the ninth consecutive quarterly decline in breeding numbers, an estimated reduction of 181,000 head since September 2020.

For the full year, US pork production is forecast to total 12.32 million tonnes, a decline of 2% from 2021, according to the USDA. Looking forward to 2023, pork production in the US is forecast to partially recover, increasing by 1% on the back of heavier carcase weights.

Year to date exports (Jan-Aug) of fresh and frozen pork from the US have totalled 1.25 million tonnes. This is 19% (285,000 tonnes) back on the same period in 2021, driven by reduced demand from China and Southeast Asia. Demand peaked for these regions during 2020 and 2021 following the outbreaks of ASF in the region. Recent import demand has been dampened by the recovery of the Chinese pig herd and increased domestic supply.

Trade with Canada and Japan has also eased over the last couple of years, although not to the same extent as with China, whilst trade with Mexico has strengthened. Mexico at present is the largest importing country of US pork, and have increased imports from the US by 18% (81,000 tonnes) so far in 2022 compared the same period a year ago.

Whilst US pork production is anticipated to increase in 2023, overall exports are forecast to drop 2% on the year. Slow global economic growth and a strong US dollar are expected to be drivers for reduced demand from importing markets. Although this will be a decrease both year on year and on the peak demand seen during COVID, exports from the US are still expected to exceed average export volumes for 2017-2019.

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