Nitrogen fertiliser prices significantly up since the start of the Middle East conflict

On Friday 27 March, we started publishing weekly fertiliser prices to provide transparent and reliable market information in response to impacts from the Middle East conflict.

Fertiliser prices were already increasing in February 2026 due to growing tensions in the Middle East and an increase in fertiliser demand in response to weather conditions.

Also, the introduction of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in January 2026 will have impacted imports of products from the EU.

As a result of the conflict, since February, prices have increased between 13%–36% across a range of products.

Table 1 shows monthly fertiliser prices for January and February 2026, and weekly prices for March.

Table 1. GB fertiliser prices in 2026

*34.5% nitrogen (N). **46% N ^30% N w/w, kg per tonne.

Source: AHDB

Please note. Imported ammonium nitrate prices may be based on product delivered to a range of UK sea ports

GB fertiliser price increases between February and the week ending 20 March are as follows:

• UK produced ammonium nitrate prices are up 25%
• Imported ammonium nitrate prices are up 29%
• Granular urea prices are up 36%
• Liquid urea ammonium nitrate prices are up 13%

Why are fertiliser prices increasing?

Fertiliser prices are increasing due to a number of reasons. Primarily due to the increase in gas prices.

Gas makes up approximately 60% of the cost of producing nitrogen fertiliser, therefore any volatility in the gas price will have knock on effects on fertiliser costs.

Secondly, shipping routes across the Strait of Hormuz continue to be limited. This is a key route for global supplies of oil, gas and urea. Around 35% of global urea exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which will have an impact on supply globally.

The UK also imports urea from the Middle East and North Africa region where there is likely disruption to shipping. The increase in oil price is also impacting freight, shipping and transport of fertilisers due to increasing fuel costs.

Most arable farmers have bought fertiliser for this year’s crops, however, the impacts of the increased prices will be felt as businesses start planning ahead for harvest 2027.

In the short term, the increased prices will mostly impact livestock farmers or those who have not already bought enough to meet their full requirements. The increase in prices may have an impact on decision making about planting intentions and efficiency of applications. For example, growers will be considering the merits of later fertiliser applications, including to meet premium crop specifications such as for milling wheat.

Going forward, price changes will depend on the direction of oil and gas prices as the conflict continues. There are also risks related to supply chain disruption, which might impact the availability of products going forward.

We are closely monitoring and will be reporting on market developments over the coming weeks.

What can farmers do about increased fertiliser prices?

• The nitrogen fertiliser adjustment tool was developed to help decision making due to impacts from the conflict in Ukraine. The tool is based on RB209 fertiliser guidance and suggests changes to farm nitrogen rates
• Improved slurry and organic manure utilisations to reduce purchased nitrogen fertiliser – the Nutrient Management Guide (RB200) helps businesses make the most of organic materials and balance the benefits of nutrient use
• Keep up to date on fertiliser prices and analysis