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How have cow slaughter trends affected the breeding herd in 2020?
Tuesday, 8 December 2020
Up until May of this year, UK cow slaughter had been running below that of 2019. Then during June, numbers jumped by 17% year-on-year, bringing the year-to-date total close to the level of slaughter at the same point in 2019.
Monthly cow slaughter then stayed elevated year-on-year until October, where it then slipped back below last year’s levels during the month. This brought cow slaughterings for the year-to-date (Jan-Oct) to 551,900 head, 1.5% higher than the same period in 2019.
The historic yearly trend for cull cow slaughter has generally been on the increase. For example, 667,500 cows were slaughtered in the UK in 2019 according to Defra data, up 198,200 head (+42%) from 2009. It should be noted that Defra data refers to any cows that have calved, regardless of age.
As a consequence, the population of breeding cows in the country has been in a state of long-term decline. Figures from the 2020 Defra June survey show that the total UK breeding herd had shrunk by a further 1% from the year before, with both dairy and suckler cow numbers reducing at the same rate. More recent population data from BCMS suggests that this contraction has continued.
Looking ahead, cattle population data and slaughter trends suggest that the breeding herd will continue to contract, in particular the suckler herd. Prime heifer slaughter has been elevated this year, which may have been supported by more would-be suckler replacements going for beef production.
We will be taking a closer look at cow slaughter and breeding herd numbers going forwards in the next edition of our Agri-Market Outlook, which will be published in January 2021.
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