GB pig prices stumble into Christmas: Pork market update

Key points:

• The EU spec SPP now stands at lowest value since summer 2022
• Weekly pig numbers in the SPP sample have seasonally increased
• EU pig prices are falling sharply, widening the price gap between the EU and UK
• British retailers maintain their British shelf facings and consumers continue to increase the volume of pig meat purchased

Although GB deadweight pig prices have been steadily declining since the end of August, weekly movements have averaged at less than a penny (-0.6p). The prolonged period of downward moves does however result in the EU spec SPP now sitting at the lowest value since summer 2022, at 198.03p/kg (week ending 13 Dec).

Throughput

With Christmas in sight, we have seen throughputs pick up. The number of pigs in the SPP sample has increased in the last two weeks (30 Nov – 13 Dec), averaging at 56,600 head, comparing to an average of 54,200 in the previous two-week period (16 Nov – 29 Nov).

Although this uptick in supply is usually driven by a seasonal increase in demand, some market reports are noting that processors are not pushing for additional numbers, indicating supply and buying demand may be more balanced this year. This is likely limiting some of the support we usually see in prices during the pre-Christmas period.

EU influence

In addition to the behaviour in the domestic market is the influence from Europe. EU reference pig prices have been dropping off at quite a pace since July, due to an increase in production and weaker demand. The price declines have accelerated in the last 2 weeks, reacting to the detection of African swine fever in wild boar in Spain. In the week ending 7 Dec the Spanish grade S pig price lost close to 15p.

The price differential between UK and EU references prices now stands at an all-time high of 58p. For some buyers this will make European product more attractive on a cost basis than the UK.

The latest monthly trade data available is October and shows that UK pig meat import volumes grew 6% month-on-month. During October, the EU-UK price differential averaged 47p.

Consumer demand

Despite the increasing gap between UK and European pricing, our latest facings survey for November showed that the majority of British retailers have continued to champion British product on their shelves.

In the 12 weeks ending 30 November, GB retail purchase volume of pig meat recorded growth of 1.6% year-on-year, driven by an increase in frequency of purchase and number of shoppers (Worldpanel by Numerator). Pig meat remains an affordable protein option for consumers with average prices up just 1.4% year-on-year, compared to 5.7% for lamb and 19.3% for beef.

Our Christmas predictions indicate 19% of consumers plan to purchase gammon or ham for Christmas day (AHDB/YouGov, November 2025).

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