EU autumn short term dairy outlook

Wednesday, 12 October 2022

The latest EU short term outlook has been released and is anticipating a 0.5% decrease in milk collections for 2022. This is in line with the EU summer outlook, which forecast a decrease in production of 0.6%. Hot and dry weather experienced over the summer affected not only daily collections, but fertility, feed and forage availability and quantity. Due to this, slaughter numbers are anticipated to increase to adjust to future feed and forage availability, all in all indicating that EU production is likely to be stunted well into 2023.

Year to date (Jan-Jul) there was a reduction in the milk fat and protein content of the milk, each recording a decrease of 1.2% compared to the year before. This decrease is anticipated to drop by 0.8% and 1% respectively if shortages of key ingredients impact winter diets. When coupled with an overall decrease in milk production, it implies lower availability of milk solids for processing.

Cheese, drinking milk, yoghurt and butter are all expected to see a reduction in total volume produced this year. Milk powder production, whilst previously expected to see some growth for the year, is now expected to drop. The high cost of drying SMP and WMP could translate into a decrease in production (-2% and -8% respectively) in 2022.

For 2023, cheese production is anticipated to see a small gain (+0.6%) in 2023 with some recovery in exports. Butter production has the potential to increase by 0.5% in 2023 if the price of vegetable oils remains high, making butter alternatives an expensive substitute.

Image of staff member Charlotte Forkes-Rees

Charlotte Forkes-Rees

Retail and Consumer Insight Analyst

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