Epic Easter lamb sales predicted

In 2023, British shoppers bought 80 Kt of lamb from supermarkets, according to AHDB/Kantar, and the market was worth £852m, up 4% year-on-year (YoY). We anticipate retailers will continue to strongly promote lamb through the key Easter, Ramadan and Eid-al-Fitr holidays, and expect to see increased demand from shoppers in 2024.

Historically, classic lamb roast dinners have been the Easter Sunday meal of choice, and according to Kantar research analysed by AHDB, lamb roasting joints saw a 25.5% increase in volume sales in 2023 compared to 2022 (Kantar, 2 w/e 9 April 2023). Of this, leg roasting joints accounted for almost 93% of all lamb roasting joints sold last Easter and 62% of all lamb sold for the period.

The importance of the Easter roast was well supported by retailers last year, with many pushing promotions. Marketing both online and in-store for many retailers featured imagery of Easter lunch with roasting joints front and centre. Lamb also saw a 17.3% YoY rise in volumes over Christmas, which all came from fresh lamb, specifically roasting joints (Kantar, 2 w/e 24 December 2023). Perhaps we will see lamb continue to gain popularity for all special occasions. 

Grace Randall, AHDB Retail Insight Manager, said:

“The lamb trade has seen incredible strength lately, with AHDB’s deadweight sheep Standard Quality Quotation (SQQ) – the GB industry-standard weight band – currently sitting at 722p/kg for the week ending 2 March 2024. The price is now sitting 217p above figures seen for the same week last year. The export market continues to support the sector, along with demand from key events including Ramadan, an early Easter and Eid Al-Fitr in early April.”

However, during non-event periods, we predict that as food inflation continues to impact shopping behaviours, many people will continue to switch to cheaper proteins, such as chicken and pork, and will save special cuts like lamb legs for holiday occasions. In 2024, we expect overall lamb volume sales in retail and foodservice to be down 2%.

Grace continued:

“Previous research has shown the importance of the ‘treat’ aspect associated with lamb, and retailers are using this alongside promotional offers. We’ve seen markets rise significantly for lamb in recent weeks, partly due to the strong demand around Easter and limited supply. However, we predict consumers will get behind the celebratory sentiment surrounding Easter once again this year and are likely to spend a little more on their meal.

“There may also be heightened demand for lamb over the next few months, as Eid falls just a few weeks after the Easter period this year. Our research has indicated that supermarkets are becoming more popular for Muslim consumers, as younger consumers are moving away from traditional stores and are looking for cheaper alternatives to butchers.”

Awal Fuseini, AHDB’s Senior Halal Manger, added:

“Muslims account for an estimated 20% of lamb consumption in England alone, and more than 62% of halal consumers eat lamb weekly, compared with just 6% of the general population. Religious festivals in the Muslim community, such as Ramadan and Eid are all drivers of lamb sales.”