Beef market update: Shortages forecast in Irish cattle numbers

Key points

•  Following a strong year for beef production, Irish cattle slaughter is forecast to fall by 5% in 2025 as supplies tighten.
•  A mixed future is anticipated for Irish exports as European live export policy evolves.
•  In the week of the 24 February the price differential between GB and Irish beef stood at 100.9p/kg, a historically wide position.

Strong production in 2024 but declines on horizon

2024 was a strong year for Irish beef production, as export demand supported markets and drove gains in farmgate prices. Irish cattle slaughter (excl. calves) grew by 3% in 2024 year-on-year to reach 1.88 million head, driven largely by heifers and cows. 
Coupled with a reduction in average weights, this put Irish beef production up 1% at 603,000 tonnes for the year. Average cattle weights have reduced over the past few years, influenced by a growing proportion of dairy-beef cattle coming to market.

For 2025, Bord Bia forecasts that Irish cattle slaughter will decrease by 5% to 1.72 million head, an 87,000 head reduction compared to last year. Within this, prime cattle slaughter is forecast to fall by 5% to 1.24 million head.

Indeed, cattle population figures suggest supplies will further tighten in 2026, with registrations of calves for beef production in Ireland (all excluding dairy heifers) down a further 2% in 2024. The drivers for this decrease in numbers appear to be numerous including the prolonged winter of 2023-24, policy changes around nitrogen management regulations, and an aging agricultural workforce.

Irish beef cattle population at January

Source: DAFM

Export growth in 2024 for beef and live cattle

Growth in exports was a key driver of the Irish market in 2024, both for beef and live animals, with Bord Bia estimating the total value of Irish primary beef exports to have increased by 6% to €2.8 billion in 2024.

Total Irish beef export volumes (including fresh, frozen and processed) rose by 4% year-on-year to 441,000 tonnes in 2024, driven largely by increased shipments to continental EU and the UK amid supply shortages. The strength of the UK market contributed to a favourable price differential for Irish product, increasing price competitiveness with their UK counterparts. UK import volumes of Irish beef rose by 11% in 2024.

Difference between GB and Irish R3 steer weekly prices (p/kg)

Source: European Commission, AHDB. GB price minus Irish price.

Meanwhile, Irish live cattle exports rose by 17% in 2024 to just under 379,000 head, with calves accounting for 56% of this trade. Weanling and store cattle were the key driver of increased live trade, driven by European dairy and beef herd reductions. Tighter European cattle numbers and disease restrictions also contributed to strong growth in Irish live exports to North Africa.

Moving forwards, Irish live exports, especially those of veal calves face an uncertain future, as proposed changes to EU transport legislation will add further cost and administration requirements to live animal exports. Significantly, reports indicate that the Netherlands will no longer be a viable destination for Irish calves after 2025 as the Dutch Veal forward plan is implemented with strict IBR and husbandry requirements for exporting countries. Bord Bia reports that in 2024 calf exports totalled at around 200,000 head, with Spain, Italy and the Netherlands identified as key markets.

What does this mean for markets?

Coupled with our own domestic supply forecasts, cattle supply is clearly looking tighter for the year ahead on both sides of the Irish sea, and demand both domestically and globally is expected to remain robust. This outlook is expected to offer support to cattle prices in both the UK and Ireland through the coming year.

In the Teagasc 2025 Outlook, it is predicted that Irish beef prices will continue to rise over the next year, rising 4% to an average price of €5.60 p/kg (including VAT) for an R3 steer. In the week of 24 February 2025, the differential between GB and Irish deadweight prices stood at 101.5 p/kg, with Irish R3 steers fetching an average of £547.0 p/kg (€ 661.1) rising 1.7% week on week and closing the differential by approximately 5 pence.

Despite these predicted price rises, Irish beef exports are expected to remain strong amidst supply constraints in the UK and EU. Indeed, in our latest beef market outlook we forecast a greater import requirement for beef into the UK given the forecast supply and demand balance. The prevalence and consumer preference for British beef at retail is a key supporting factor for domestic markets. However, the transmission of recent cattle price rises through the chain to the consumer, and any subsequent impact this may have on beef purchases are key watchpoints going forward.

You can subscribe to receive Beef and Lamb market news straight to your inbox. Simply fill in your contact details on our online form.