GB milk deliveries: volumes reflect underwhelming spring flush as we enter into the new season

GB milk deliveries in April are estimated to have totalled 1,073 million litres, 2.2% below the same month in 2023. Average daily deliveries are estimated at 35.76 million litres.

Considering that the GB dairy herd remains relatively stable (BCMS, 1 January), subdued volumes are most likely as a result of lower yields per cow. Prolonged wet weather has impeded production.

Exceptionally wet conditions throughout the Autumn, winter, and spring, teamed with a cooler than average second half of April have held back production with all expectations pointing to a spring flush that is well below average. Until the end of March, grass growth according to AHDB’s Forage for Knowledge tool was in line with the 5 year average. However, since then ongoing above average rainfall and cool conditions have seen grass growth well below the seasonal average, sitting at 40.3 kg of DM per hectare compared to the 5-year average of 57.7. Grass utilisation will have been a problem for many with the wet precluding much turnout for most, barring those on the lightest of soils. This could cause difficulties right through the season with farmers unable to get on to conduct usual groundwork activities until later in the growing season causing future issues for silage making.

Wholesale demand has been stagnant in April, as industry awaited on the Spring flush, typically driving prices down but in this instance only softening marginally and drifting upwards for butter.

Looking forward, May milk prices are steady to firm. Some marginal uplifts are expected as some processors add caution to tight production projections. Cheesemakers in particular are more nervous about milk flows and are offering better prices in turn. However, both global and domestic demand has been steady throughout the first part of 2024 which has created some equilibrium. The market continues to lack much direction until the extent of the weakness of the spring flush is known.

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