Food security in the UK – three years on

On 11 December 2024, Defra published the UK Food Security Report for 2024. This Government are committed to publishing a report on food security in the UK every three years, this is the second update.

We published analysis of the previous report and noted that although food security in the UK was relatively stable, there was pressure from climate change, availability of natural resources, labour availability, the environment and unreliable weather patterns that could be a long-term risk to food supply.

With these pressures in mind, the key thing for the industry was resilience to these, alongside the changing policy environment.

Over the last three years, there have been a number of additional shocks and major events that have impacted the food system and therefore have had a knock-on effect to food security.

There has been the recovery from COVID-19, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East, increasingly extreme weather events in the UK and other supply chain shocks, such as food shortages.

Taking these shocks into account, along with the ones identified from the previous report, it is evident that the food supply chain needs to continue to increase resilience as well as adapt to changing environments.

Key takeaways

The food security report examines food security across five different themes: global food availability, UK food supply sources, food supply chain resilience, food security at the household level, and food safety and consumer confidence.

Global food availability

• There has been continued stable growth in the global production of food; meat production has increased by 3.85% since the previous report
• The main risks to food production are climate change, nature loss and water insecurity
• There has been weak productivity growth compared to the previous decade

UK food supply sources

• The balance of trade and production for the UK is stable, at an overall ratio of around 60:40; this was 62% for all food and 75% for indigenous food, however, the UK continues to be highly dependent on imports to meet demands for fruit, vegetables and seafood
• Production levels are significantly impacted by extreme weather events which are impacting both planted area and yields
• The report noted that the decline in the UK’s natural capital is an increasing risk to food production. Food production is reliant on biodiversity, healthy soils and clean water for sustainable, productive systems

Food supply chain resilience

• The major impacts to food supply resilience have been the Russian invasion of Ukraine which impacts both energy and fertiliser prices, as well labour shortages, and single points of failure in food supply chains
• The impacts from increased energy prices highlighted the vulnerability of the food system to high input prices as well as other cost pressures that may arise

Food security at the household level

• There has been a notable decrease in food security households in the UK
• Food price inflation significantly impacted household
• Most people do not meet government dietary recommendations; this is more likely to be those form lower-income households
• Low income and disabled groups continue to be at disproportionately high risk of household food insecurity and its potential negative impacts

Food safety and consumer confidence

• There has been an increase in consumers reporting concerns about food prices as expected due to the impact of inflation over the previous three years
• There has been an upward trend in food business hygiene compliance

When discussing food security, it is important to consider a whole-systems approach to food, from the inputs required to grow food to the food being on the shelves in shops.

Over the past three years, there have been several huge shocks which have impacted to the food system, COVID-19, global conflict and inflation.

Although the food system has shown recovery from the shocks, it has also highlighted vulnerabilities within the system, especially when combined with existing long term risks such as climate change and other environmental pressures. As identified in the first version of this report, increasing resilience within the supply chain is essential to overcoming these potential risks.

In terms of UK production of food, there have been several events over the last three years that are impacting farmers. Whether that be flooding and wet weather impacting planting and harvest, or inflation of energy and input costs.

Farmers are having to be more resilient to these impacts, while also adapting to new policy schemes, reducing direct payments, and increasing environmental and sustainability requirements.

There is also concern across the industry about the impact of the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) scheme and the upcoming land use framework, on the land available for food production.

As we saw earlier, Defra responded to some of these industry concerns by limiting the amount of land a farmer can put into eight of the land sparing SFI actions. Based on AHDB analysis into the impact of SFI on farmers bottom line, we found that using the farm’s productive land within the scheme can have an increasingly detrimental effect on the farm’s net profit.

Similarly, we explored the SFI uptake data to see how much land was entered into the scheme. Based on data from May 2024, 81% of those who had entered the scheme had entered less than 10% of their land in the scheme which we expect to be the poorer, unproductive areas of land.

Find out more on the impact of the SFI scheme

According to the UK Food Security report, the UK remains relatively food secure. However, food price inflation has caused a noticeable decrease in food secure household, especially those lower-income groupers who are now experiencing greater food security.

Another key issue is that most people do not meet government dietary requirements.

As discussed in a previous food security article, consumer preferences when it comes to food are leading to adverse health outcomes. Consumers are not making fully informed decisions when it comes to their diet, and do not fully consider the impact to their long-term health, whether that be through overconsumption are through consuming ultra processed foods that are low in micronutrients.

Looking to the next few years, there are a lot of potential impacts on food security in the UK.

In terms of global trade there will be impacts from the tariffs the USA might implement on some of their largest trading partners, as well as impacts from how the UK-EU relations discussion progress.

At the UK level, there is the land use framework consultation, along with farmers having to contend with continued extreme weather and changing economic environment.  

Over the coming months, we will be examining the risks to food security in relation to the farming industry, as well as examining the importance of security of agricultural inputs, and the potential pinch points across the supply chains of the different sectors.