Cutting through the fat: How GLP-1 drugs are affecting the dairy market

• Around 4.1% of GB households are already using GLP-1 drugs, with further growth expected
• Shifting demand for protein and fat could change the valorisation of milk produced in the UK
• The UK dairy industry is well positioned to capitalise on some of the upcoming opportunities if it can boost processing capacity to fully tap into protein-rich product potential

What are GLP-1 drugs?

GLP-1 drugs are primarily used to treat type-2 diabetes and obesity.

They work by mimicking natural gut hormones, slowing digestion, suppressing appetite and changing how food tastes, encouraging people to consume less calories (Rabobank).

Doctors typically recommend a diet that focuses on nutritionally dense, lower fat and protein-heavy foods when prescribing these medications.

GLP-1 drug uptake

The USA was the first market to see wide uptake of GLP-1 variants.

Gallup health (October 2025) reported that 12.4% of American adults are now using injectable GLP-1 medications for weight loss, with uptake increasing rapidly.

In the UK, only around 4.1% of GB households are currently taking GLP-1 drugs,¹ but Europe is still in the early stages.

With almost two-thirds of adults in England classified as overweight and more than a quarter as obese² (in 2023/2024), the potential market is significant.

To put this into perspective, vegetarians make up 6.1% of the population, while vegans account for 1%.³ While small, these groups have reshaped marketing strategies and product offerings.

Similarly, GLP-1 adoption may not need to be widespread to have a large impact on dairy consumers.

Looking ahead, uptake and awareness are expected to grow in 2026.

Vanessa Adamson, Retail & Consumer Insight Manager at AHDB, said:

“As more consumers are expected to try GLP-1 weight-loss drugs in 2026, lean primary red meat, natural yogurt, milk and eggs are likely to be popular, as these consumers are actively seeking nutrient-dense meals in smaller portions that are packed with protein for muscle maintenance.”

Momentum is set to build further as policy shifts, accessibility increases and new variants of the drug emerge, including oral options.

What does this mean for dairy demand?

The main effect of the drug is reduced overall food consumption, but the content of that food is what’s important for consumer health.

Rabobank lists dairy as a category better positioned to benefit from the ‘less but better’ trend.

Preferences are for products with higher nutritional values, with a particular focus on protein intake.

The drug also alters taste perception, reducing cravings for more indulgent foods.⁴

Learning from the USA

According to IFF tracking data, GLP-1 households show unmistakable consumption shifts.

Although the USA takes a different approach to healthcare and their rate of obesity is higher (42% vs 26.5%), we can make some assumptions based on their market direction.

A Rabobank report on a study conducted by Cornell University and Numerator found that US households with at least one GLP-1 user reduced their total grocery spend by around 6% within six months.

Heavier meals and snacking foods like crisps and confectionary are most negatively affected.

Within the US dairy category, declining consumption has been recorded for higher-fat products, such as cheese, butter, ice cream and whipped cream.

Meanwhile, consumption for high-protein products has increased with growth in cottage cheese, Greek yogurt and whey protein beverages.

In GB, we have seen a similar theme emerge. Demand for high-protein yogurt and cottage cheese has been growing for some time, driven by consumer interests in high-protein foods. GLP-1 trends could accelerate this growth.

Reformulations, innovative marketing and influence on new product development are already prevalent.

Many retailers in the UK have launched smaller-portion ready meals specifically targeting GLP-1 users.

From chasing fat to chasing protein?

GLP-1 users are reinforcing health trends that are already in motion: high protein, gut health, nutrient density and lower levels of ultra-processed foods.

For dairy, the implications differ by product.

Whey plays a significant role in the formulation of nutrition drinks and protein-enriched products, while higher-fat products are less favourable for GLP-1 users.

The EU short-term outlook predicts dairy will remain a favoured protein source, particularly in low-fat and low-sugar products.

While the 2025 record-high butter prices caused concern for imbalances in the dairy component mix between fats and proteins, more demand for protein could help to balance the equation.

The location of processing capacity for different dairy products could raise some issues in GB.

Cheese is readily processed in GB, while enhanced whey products are more processed on the continent.

Should demand for higher-fat, domestically produced cheese fall and demand for more highly processed ‘pure’ whey products increase (including WPI (whey protein isolate) and WPC 80 (whey protein concentrate 80%)), this could change the valorisation of milk produced in the UK.

More processing capacity for these types of products in GB would be welcome and some processors are already tapping into the trend by investing in new cottage cheese production facilities.

In summary

GLP-1 drugs are still in the early stages of adoption, but their influence on the food industry is already becoming clear. They are shaping marketing strategies and new product development, as well as consumer choices and eating patterns.

The UK dairy industry is well positioned to respond, particularly by leaning into its protein-rich whey products. However, the nutritional value of dairy needs to be well communicated, and raw ingredients alone may not be enough.

Providing nutritionally complete, convenient, pre-packed dairy options with attention to portion sizes will be key to winning these consumers.

Fortified products with added vitamins and minerals, positioned as nutrient dense, can be expected to perform well, catering to shoppers who need adequate nutrition on a reduced appetite.

References

¹ Worldpanel by Numerator

² DHSC

³ Worldpanel by Numerator 52 w/e 23 February 2025

⁴ NHS

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