Crop ratings fall after dry April and May

Prolonged dry weather through May has placed significant pressure on UK crop conditions, with both winter and spring crops affected, according to our latest crop development report.

Following a drier-than-average April, limited rainfall during the first three weeks of May led to a drop in crop condition scores.

Wetter conditions later in the month brought some improvement, but recovery has been patchy and moisture deficits remain in some regions, particularly on lighter soils.

As a result, the proportion of winter cereal crops rated good or excellent has fallen since April:

• 64% of winter wheat, down from 74%
• 62% of winter barley, down from 70%
• 71% of winter oats, down from 81%

Winter oilseed rape is also lower, with 78% rated good or excellent, down from 84% last month. Crops still show good yield potential.

Despite these declines, wheat and barley conditions remain ahead of the past two seasons.

Spring crops have faced greater challenges, with establishment and early development affected by lack of moisture. Condition scores highlight the impact of the dry start to the season.

There’s still clear regional variation. Parts of England report weaker crop conditions, particularly on lighter soils, while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland generally show stronger performance.

The next two to three weeks will be crucial for yield potential.

While fewer crops are rated poor or very poor compared with last year, many stay in ‘fair’ condition. This leaves scope for improvement if rainfall comes soon.

Recent high temperatures have also increased crop stress. Signs such as leaf rolling in wheat suggest the benefit of late-May rainfall may be short-lived.

Helen Plant, AHDB Lead Analyst (Cereals & Oilseeds), said:

“The dry conditions through April and much of May have clearly taken a toll on crop development, particularly for spring crops and winter cereals with limited moisture reserves.

“While recent rainfall has helped in some areas, it hasn’t been enough to fully reverse earlier impacts, and regional variability remains a key feature of this season.

“The next few weeks will be critical. With many crops currently rated in ‘fair’ condition, there is still potential to support yields if further rainfall arrives, but the window for recovery, especially for winter cereals, is narrowing.”

The season’s challenges come at a time when farm businesses are already under financial pressure.

Input costs remain high, with fertiliser prices rising sharply, while forward feed wheat prices for harvest 2026 are only around 5% higher year-on-year.

Without enough rainfall to support yields, there’s a risk of further pressure on farm profitability and cash flow. This could influence cropping decisions for harvest 2027.

There are early signs of potential relief, with forecasts suggesting more unsettled weather in some regions.

We will publish our final 2026 crop development report on 26 June.