Beef market update: Strong year so far across global beef market, but what is the outlook for 2025?

Key points:

• Record production and export volumes from Brazil and Australia in 2024, with the trend set to continue for Australia in 2025.
• Brazil output expected to slow in 2025 as re-stocking begins.
• US production expected to decline further in 2025, but potential risk to demand from high consumer prices.
• Negative production forecasts across parts of the global market for 2025 may be supportive of cattle prices generally.

Production

Global beef markets saw a strong start in the first half of 2024 according to the most recent Rabobank report. Cattle markets have remained well supported through 2024 so far, with strong demand and lower supply levels across parts of the globe. This looks likely continue in the second half of the year, with global production forecast to see a slight lift in Q4, before falling in 2025.

Australian production volumes have remained high and are expected to increase, rising by 18% in 2024 to 2.53m tonnes. This is the country’s highest production volume since 2015, with production set to break records in 2025, rising to 2.55m tonnes before falling again in 2026. This will be partially supported by routinely heavier carcase weights.

In terms of Brazil, slaughter has hit record levels in 2024. However, other regions of South America including Uruguay and Paraguay have seen a more mixed picture due to poor weather and cow destocking. Looking ahead, Brazil’s beef production is forecast to slow in 2025 (by -1% versus 2024 according to the USDA) as producers retain more cattle.

The US has seen sustained declines in production volumes since reaching a peak in 2022, and this is forecast to continue into 2025. This has weighed on exports, driven up imports and pushed prices to record highs. Australia has benefitted, gaining market share in the US as well as key Asian markets. High US consumer prices are identified as a risk to demand levels through the remainder of the year.

EU beef production has also seen a strong start in the first half of 2024, with volumes up 5%. However, the latest outlook from the European Commission forecasts that production will round the year off marginally below 2023’s level (-0.5%), suggesting some tightening in supply through the second half of the year. Into 2025, production is forecast to reduce again, by -1% as structural herd reduction continues. This is expected to add support to producer prices.

Trade

Brazil’s record output, combined with a devaluation in the Real against the US Dollar, has facilitated record exports so far in 2024. Brazilian exports for the first half of the year rose 29%, compared to the same period in 2023. For the first half of 2024 China saw record volumes of beef imports, up 17% year-on-year. Brazil remains the main exporter of beef into China, with volumes continuing to grow, due to their competitive price position globally. However, Brazil’s market share in China has reduced, with more being shipped into North America, the Middle East and the North African (MENA) region.

Brazil is the second largest supplier of beef into the EU, however volumes have fallen this year. The EU also remains a key market for UK beef, with UK shipments up 4% year-on-year between Jan-Jul. The competitiveness of UK beef on the EU market will be a key watchpoint going forward for exports, given current strength in prices.

Australian beef export volumes hit record levels in July, with exports to the US reaching the highest volumes seen since 2015 and volumes to Japan the highest since March 2020. This has largely been driven by the drop in US production as Australian beef has capitalised on the shortfall, with US demand for beef imports remaining robust.

Additionally, the shortall in US beef production has opened up space in export markets such as Japan and Korea. With Australia being the US’s main competitor in these markets, this has allowed them an opportunity to increase their market share.

UK Focus

With the UK’s current price position, our competitiveness within the global markets should be considered. Producer prices have been historically strong this year, supported by resilient consumer demand and growth in exports. Supply of beef on the UK market has been higher from production and imports, but young cattle inventory points to lower slaughter availability into 2025, driven by suckler herd contraction.

Negative production projections for 2025 in the UK and across key areas of the global beef market would suggest further support for cattle prices generally may continue. Equally, longer-term growth forecasts in global beef consumption, particularly in Asia, could be favourable for markets and UK export prospects. Read our analysis of global prospects for UK agri-food exports.

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