What could the impact of President Trump’s tariffs be on the UK beef and lamb markets?

The full extent of the impact of President Trump’s tariff announcements on the UK beef and lamb sectors is difficult to unpick. While the direct impacts on the UK are expected to be minimal, the international nature of importing and exporting may lead to indirect effects being felt. We examine the current state of play for beef and lamb trade with the US, and what the potential impacts could be.

Key points

• Any restrictions on US beef or lamb trade in any direction could mean more product on the world market. It could also mean opportunities in markets where supply is restricted, and lead to a shift in global trade flows. This may affect market prices, depending on what product lands where.
• For beef, product from key supplying nations currently face comparatively low (10%) tariffs into the US, suggesting minimal disruption to trade in this direction. However, there may be more disruption to US exports, depending on how individual countries respond. This may create risks as well as opportunities.
• For sheep meat, while the US market is relatively small, its import volumes are significant globally. Current tariffs on Australia and New Zealand are not expected to materially affect exports to the US.
• More broadly, the uncertainty caused by President Trump’s tariff decisions may damage global economic growth and focus the attention of exporters on the security and scale of trade with alternative markets, such as the UK.

Trump tariffs: what we know so far

Three weeks ago, President Trump announced his long-awaited “reciprocal” tariff regime. This included the application of an additional baseline 10% tariff rate on all imports from the UK.

A raft of higher tariff rates for other countries were due to come into force on 9 April. However, on the same day President Trump announced that there would be a 90-day pause on the implementation of these tariffs and applied the baseline 10% tariff to the rest of the world (with some product exemptions). China is excluded from this 90-day pause and faces additional tariffs of up to 145% at time of writing.

Current trade situation: Beef

The US represents a small proportion of UK beef exports, being our 13th largest market in 2024 with just over 2,000 tonnes of product (incl. offal) shipped. The majority of this product is frozen beef offal, alongside a smaller quantity of frozen boneless beef. The UK regained access to the US beef and lamb market in 2022, following the lifting of a long-standing ban due to concerns over bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE).

The UK does not have a preferential trade agreement with the US and so exports into the country have always faced tariffs. Currently, the UK accesses the US beef market via a “rest of world” tariff rate quota (TRQ) that is open to all countries. This TRQ is difficult to utilise as it is small (65,000 tonnes) and typically filled by Brazil in the first couple of months each year. Outside of that TRQ, UK beef faces tariffs of up to 26.4% into the US depending on cut, which already affects the price competitiveness of our product on the US market.

The US is the second largest importer globally of beef (1.6 million tonnes in 2024), with the top five exporters by volume being Australia, Canada, Mexico, Brazil and New Zealand. Most product is boneless beef, with the US having a large demand for beef trim for ground beef manufacture.

The US is also the world’s fourth largest beef exporter (1.2 million tonnes in 2024), and like others is reliant on export for carcase balance. Key markets for the US are mostly in Asia (including Japan, South Korea, China), Mexico and Canada. Most product is boneless beef and offal.

Potential impacts: Beef

Applying the additional 10% tariff on top of the UK’s existing 26.4% tariff would further increase the price of UK beef on the US market, potentially acting as a barrier to trade. However, the US being a relatively small trade destination for UK beef would suggest a minimal direct impact on the UK market overall.

Although the UK faces the baseline tariff, there are likely to be indirect effects as trade is international. Such effects are complicated to unpick and model, not least because the situation is always changing.

Fundamentally, any tariffs that reduce the attractiveness of either importing into the US, or exporting from the US to other nations, may mean more beef looking to find a home on the global market. There could also be opportunities for other exporters in markets that restrict US imports.

As things stand currently, US beef export flows are potentially more at risk, rather than imports into the US, but a lot depends on how other nations react. China for example has placed steep retaliatory tariffs on the US, making American beef unaffordable and severely affecting trade. US beef was already facing barriers into China due to high prices and un-renewed export permits. This potentially leaves more US beef on the global market and could have domestic price implications. Other exporters such as Australia and Brazil may look to capitalise and fill the gap in Chinese imports, which could create opportunities elsewhere.

Brazil, Australia and New Zealand face the minimal 10% tariff into the US. Meanwhile, beef originating from Canada and Mexico is exempt from tariffs under the US-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USCMA) (formerly NAFTA). This would suggest minimal impact on major beef trade flows into the US, which is beneficial as the US’s beef import requirement is historically high due on lower supplies.

Closer to home, if original tariffs are re-imposed after the 90-day pause, the EU potentially faces a 20% tariff on exports to the US (versus the UK’s 10%). This mainly concerns Ireland, the Netherlands and France, who together shipped around 8,000 tonnes to the US in 2024. Again, this could act as a blocker to exports from the EU and lead to more beef available to other markets, including the UK.

Current trade situation: sheep meat

Currently, the UK does not trade much sheep meat or sheep offal with the US. According to HMRC figures, the UK shipped 48 tonnes to the US in 2024. For context, 45,000 tonnes was sent to France over the same period, the UK’s largest market for sheep meat exports. Before the latest round of tariffs, UK sheep meat faced a relatively small tariff of 0.7cents/kg into the US.

The US sheep meat sector is small compared to beef. However, the quantity imported into the country is significant on the global market. The US imported 150,000 tonnes of sheep meat and offal in 2024, making it the world’s second largest importer in volume terms. Australia accounted for 74% of this, with New Zealand supplying most of the remainder. Many different cuts and products are imported, but the majority is bone-in and boneless lamb with focus on high-value cuts (like frenched racks).

A small amount of sheep meat is exported from the US (3,300 tonnes in 2024). This is mostly bone-in cuts and offal, with the main customers being Mexico and Caribbean countries.

Potential impacts: sheep meat

Like with beef, any restrictions on US sheep meat trade in any direction could mean more product on the world market. It could also mean opportunities in markets where supply is restricted, and lead to a shift in global trade flows.

Direct sheep meat trade between the UK and US is minimal and unlikely to be materially affected by current tariffs. Equally the 10% tariff on Australian and New Zealand sheep meat exports is not expected to disrupt trade flows too much. Lamb is a comparatively niche product in the US, and a 10% cost increase is likely to fall within the typical fluctuations seen in commodity markets and exchange rates. Product is likely to remain affordable to the US consumers who purchase, especially given the competitive price position of Oceania sheep meat globally.

More broadly, the uncertainty caused by President Trump’s tariff changes may sharpen the focus of exporters on the security and scale of trade with other nations, such as the UK.

Downstream and upstream impacts

Aside from meat and offal, there may be further-reaching impacts on other products that are fundamental to beef and sheep meat supply chains; machinery, genetics, feed, hides and skins to name a few. Tariffs also raise the cost and complexity of logistics and can cause disruption.

As the situation changes and hopefully settles, we will conduct more detailed analysis on potential impacts on our sectors.

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