UK pork outlook 2025: October production update

Key points

• UK pig meat production in Q3 declined 2.4% year-on-year, impacted by prolonged hot weather in July and August
• September’s monthly production and slaughter data showed some signs of recovery
• Q4 pig meat production is anticipated to return to growth, driven by heavier carcase weights
• Our pig meat production forecast for the full year of 2025 remains in growth versus 2024, but lower than original expectations

With the release of the monthly Defra statistics for September 2025, the impact of prolonged hot and dry weather in late spring and the duration of summer has been highlighted. Pig meat production in Q3 (Jul–Sep) declined by 2.4% year-on-year (YoY) to 237,000 tonnes (t) and is 1.0% below the volume produced in Q2 (Apr–Jun). This is significantly behind our original forecast for this quarter, which indicated growth of 1.4% YoY.

The overall decline has been driven by lower slaughter numbers and lower carcase weights in the summer months (July and August), with signs of recovery seen in September data. Clean pig kill in September totalled 869,000 head, compared to 826,000 head in August, an increase of 5.2% month-on-month (MoM). Carcase weights also recorded a significant jump MoM, gaining 1.4 kg in September to average 90.7 kg, returning to values seen earlier in the year.

This brings year to date 2025 (Jan–Sep) pig meat production to 720,000 t, a 1.8% increase YoY, driven by a 1.5% increase in clean pig kill (totalling 7.7 million head) paired alongside 500 g heavier carcases.

Looking ahead to Q4 we anticipate pig meat production to return to YoY growth, up around 1%. This is expected to be driven by increased carcase weights, which have already picked up in the weekly SPP sample through October. We expect that clean pig kill will be flat YoY, with throughput disruptions caused by breakdowns having been noted in October and Christmas demand focussing kill schedules in November and December.

Overall, for the full year of 2025, this would result in pig meat production totalling 968,000 t, an increase of 1.5% compared to 2024, with clean pig kill up 1.1% YoY at 10.36 million head.

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