Pork market outlook

February 2025

• Production volumes are expected to remain relatively steady in 2025, maintained by clean pig numbers
• Average carcase weights will remain around the 90 kg mark, and on-farm performance will benchmark similarly to last year
• Limited growth in the female breeding herd in 2025; this is forecast to only return to 2023 levels by 2027
• Challenges continue for export markets due to increased geopolitical tensions
• Competitive EU product pricing and continued growth in foodservice are likely to support import volumes
• Retail volume decline may slow as the price differential between pig meat and chicken continues to fluctuate

Market stability was the headline summary for 2024, and it was a welcome relief compared to the turbulence seen in previous years. Despite a very wet start to the year, industry sentiment was generally positive, supported by favourable net margins.

AHDB’s quarterly estimated cost of production (COP) saw minimal change year-on-year (YoY) through Q1 and Q2 but declined in Q3 and Q4 on the back of lower feed costs. This meant that, despite GB pig prices easing in the latter part of the year, net margins averaged £15/head.

Pig meat production in the UK went from strength to strength in 2024, surpassing initial expectations despite a further decline in the breeding herd. Improved on-farm productivity drove clean pig slaughter numbers up by 2.8% YoY to stand at 10.33 million head. Higher average carcase weights resulted in pig meat production growth of 3.7% YoY, to a total just shy of 961,000 tonnes.

Supply and demand appear to have been relatively well balanced in 2024. Although monthly trade volumes did fluctuate for the year to date (January to November), both import and export volumes have recorded only a small change compared to 2023. Despite falling EU pig prices, import volume stood at just over 725,000 tonnes (product weight), up by 0.7% YoY. Meanwhile export volume, at over 273,000 tonnes (product weight), was down by 1.0% YoY.

Looking to the year ahead, we anticipate little change in 2025 vs 2024 for pig meat production, with clean pig kill supporting volumes rather than weights. For the full year, we are forecasting pig meat production to decline by 0.1%, to a total of 960,000 tonnes. Quarterly volumes are expected to steadily increase as the year progresses, but the YoY movement will be minimal. The overall trend is driven by a strong decline (-1.1%) in Q3, due to annualising against very high production during this period last year.

Clean pig slaughter numbers are forecasted to follow the same pattern as production, reaching 10.32 million head in 2025. Q1 is likely to see a small amount of growth YoY due to lower numbers seen during this period in 2024.

This outlook is written with the following assumptions:

• Carcase weights will continue to average around the 90 kg mark in 2025
• On-farm performance will benchmark similarly to last year

Taking these assumptions into account, the size of the breeding herd will be the main driver of production and slaughter numbers in 2025.

Despite improved industry sentiment, there continued to be a number of producers exiting the industry through H1 of 2024. This ultimately led to a 3.1% decline in the UK female breeding herd at the Defra June census. By contrast, H2 brought reports of on-farm investments, increasing demand at genetic firms, and some intentions to up pig numbers. However, the autumn Budget on 30 October created uncertainty, dampening sentiment at year end, which is being carried into this year.

On this basis, we are forecasting a slight increase in the UK female breeding herd for 2025, up just 1% by June, to 330,000 head. Extending out to future years, we continue to anticipate only minor changes in the size of the breeding herd, with numbers in 2027 forecast as similar to those recorded in 2023. This will be dependent on net margins remaining in a positive position.

2025 is likely to be another mixed year for pig meat trade. Geopolitical tensions continue to run high. And with new governments in power and new trade deals being negotiated, there is a lot of uncertainty across the globe. Domestically, export volumes are typically harder hit by market volatility than imports.

The EU27 is the most significant trade partner for UK pig meat, accounting for over 99% of imports and over 42% of export volume. We anticipate lower demand from the EU27 through 2025. Like the UK, European production has grown in 2024, up by 2.4% (Jan–Oct), and this has kept supplies plentiful among a backdrop of weakening consumption.

The European Commission recently published its medium-term outlook, in which it states the expectation is for pig meat production and consumption to continue to decline. This is likely to keep UK exports to the EU subdued. Added to this, we are still waiting for the conclusions of the Chinese anti-dumping investigation into EU pork supplies: China announced this measure last year as a retaliation against higher tariffs on imported electric vehicles. Higher tariffs on EU product entering China could result in a surplus, thus reducing EU demand from the UK even further.

Turning to UK imports from the EU, there is good potential for volumes to grow YoY. The large differential between EU and UK pricing makes purchasing EU product more attractive to some buyers. It is probable that a surplus in EU product would pressure EU pig prices even lower. Although most of the major retailers in the UK have commitments to British product, the foodservice sector generally relies more on non-British product. Therefore, growth in this market is likely to support import volumes.

In the USA, with Trump now sworn in as the 47^th president, there is a possibility of some trade friction. We are monitoring how the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and USA evolves, and if the increased tariffs promoted in his election campaign materialise.

However, it is not all doom and gloom for UK trade. Opportunities in China continue to present themselves: it has a better economic forecast for 2025, and the relisting of two major processing sites could boost UK shipments in the coming months. The wider South East Asia region also supports export volumes, with African swine fever (ASF) still not under control in countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam.

There is also potential for the UK to improve its trading relationship with countries such as South Korea, where Germany can no longer supply due to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD).

Overall, for 2025 we are forecasting UK imports up by 1% YoY, driven by price differential between UK and EU and robust demand in foodservice sector. We note that consensus among traders is that FMD in Germany will cause minimal impact on UK imports, because buyers will source from elsewhere within the EU. We anticipate UK pig meat export volumes will be down by 1% year-on-year as lower shipments to the EU and USA outweigh gains in other markets.

GB pig prices have been gradually tracking downwards since mid-September, with the standard pig price (SPP) starting the new year (week ending 4 January), over 8p below the same point in 2024.

It is likely that domestic pig prices will continue to face pressure from falling EU prices through Q1 2025, with the new year starting at a record price differential of 44p. Looking further ahead, prices could see some stability if no significant changes are seen in input costs, maintaining cost of production. Seasonal demand peaks could offer some short-term support for prices nearer summer and in the run-up to Christmas.

Global politics and trade dynamics will be a key influence on pricing trends in 2025, but there is also the potential impact of disease. Biosecurity is of utmost importance to the UK industry. Disease outbreaks not only have severe consequences on production in the impacted country but they also bring limitations on trade. For a nation such as the UK that relies heavily on exports for carcase balance, this is hugely detrimental to industry. ASF remains in the west of Germany, and the recent detection of FMD in the east of the country further highlights our need to remain vigilant.

Consumption trends

In 2024, retail demand for pork fell by 2.4% year-on-year according to Kantar (52 w/e 29 December 2024). The foodservice market performed better, with volumes up by 5.5% (AHDB estimates based on Kantar out-of-home data).

For recent trends on pork and cut specifics, see our retail and foodservice dashboards.

For 2025 we expect a level of economic uncertainty, as detailed in our economic outlook. We expect business confidence will remain low, and this will likely feed down to shoppers. After multiple years of consumers overcoming challenges and reconsidering how to spend their money, we expect any changes in shopping behaviour to be gradual.

Consequently, we anticipate the trends seen over the last few years to remain. Overall pork volumes for 2025 are expected to decrease by -1%, compared to 2024.

This decrease in consumption will be driven by retail performance, where pig meat is likely to continue to experience headwinds from both the cost-of-living crisis and consumer perceptions around the health credentials of pig meat products.

In retail, the price differential between pig meat and chicken continues to fluctuate. So, we anticipate that consumers for whom price is a consideration when making food choices may look to switch from pig meat to cheaper cuts, such as chicken legs, wings and thighs.

Within pork purchasing, we expect the trend towards cheaper and convenient cuts, such as mince, to continue since these offer good value for money and are easy and quick to cook. Preparation times for evening meals have reduced from 34 minutes in 2021 to 31 minutes in 2024 across all life stages and age groups (Kantar Usage 52 w/e 12 May 2024). Pig meat products such as sausages and burgers could also see growth during the summer months, as the desire for BBQs and social gatherings increases.

If financial pressures start to ease during 2025, reputational factors such as health will become a higher priority to consumers, thus making it important to communicate the health benefits of pork.

While retail demand is likely to be muted, encouragingly, the outlook for the out-of-home pork market looks more positive. Dining out and on-the-go volumes are predicted to increase year-on-year as more consumers return to the office and choose to treat themselves to breakfast or lunch.

Pork is well suited to on-the-go dining sectors, with meals such as sandwiches, pork rolls, baguettes and savoury pastry products being popular (Kantar out-of-home). Food-to-go lunches are less expensive than other out-of-home meal occasions and provide enjoyable, tasty and affordable treats for consumers. In contrast, takeaways are likely to fall slightly as consumers transition back to the office, resulting in fewer takeaway lunches.

How might the outlook for pork consumption be improved?

• Address health concerns by communicating the health benefits of pork, such as: rich in vitamins B12 and B6, a good source of iron and zinc and a high source of protein
• Highlight the versatility of pork dishes, which can offer nutritious and filling meals for families at a reasonable cost
• Inspire consumers to batch cook and provide new recipe ideas as an alternative to chicken
• For more premium cuts of pork, capture meal occasions lost from more expensive proteins by encouraging tasty, treat dinners such as fake aways or dine-in meal occasions, e.g. pork tenderloin, ultimate pulled pork, roasted pork belly
• Engage with retailers to communicate the benefits of pork in store, online, on packs and foodservice
• Engage with consumers regularly to maintain and build trust and to share the work that farmers are doing in the UK around animal welfare, environmental stewardship and their high levels of expertise in providing quality food products

AHDB has a range of marketing activities planned for the year, including the new Love Pork campaign. Please visit our marketing pages for more information. For more insight around consumer demand, visit our retail and consumer pages.

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