Q4 2025 EU dairy products available supplies remain mixed

Key trends

• Butter supplies increased due to a rise in production and imports
• Cheese stocks are balanced
• An increase in production boosted SMP stocks while WMP trended lower

Milk deliveries in the EU increased by 5.5% in the fourth quarter year-on-year, which increased the production of dairy products. This, coupled with higher imports, added to available supplies of butter and SMP. Stocks of WMP were lower following lower production and imports.

Total dairy exports from the continent increased by 9.9% in the fourth quarter year-on-year due to competitive prices.

The increase in exports was mainly reported to MENA (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and Asia, including Vietnam, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan, Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia, India and Pakistan. However, demand from China, one of the major importers of dairy, remained on the lower side.

Butter stocks continued growth

The increase in available butter supplies in Q4 was driven by higher production and imports. Incredible milk volumes in the second half of the year boosted production.

Butter exports increased 8% year-on-year due to being competitive in the global market.

Overall, available supplies of butter increased 10.9% (48,000 tonnes) in the fourth quarter year-on-year.

Cheese supplies stabilised

Cheese stocks stabilised in the fourth quarter year-on-year after increasing in the second and third quarter. Although production and imports increased during the period, robust exports limited the overall available supplies.

Export demand picked up from MENA countries, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea and China.

Available supplies of cheese increased marginally by 0.1% (1,000 tonnes) in the fourth quarter year-on-year.

SMP stocks grew while WMP fell

Availability of SMP supplies increased by 4.5% year-on-year in Q4 2025. Production and imports increased by 21.7% and 8.8%, respectively.

Higher milk production resulted in production of longer shelf-life products.

Exports were significantly higher by 39.9% year-on-year. They increased mainly to MENA countries (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia) and Asian countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore.

WMP production declined marginally year-on-year with processors using more milk for butter and SMP production.

Exports increased during the period to MENA and Asian nations including Singapore, Bangladesh and Vietnam.

Available supplies declined by 11.1% (8,800 tonnes) following slightly lower production and imports, with higher exports, which dragged down the overall supplies of milk powders.

Figure 1. Year-on-year change in EU dairy product availability (Oct–Dec 2025 v 2024) (thousand tonnes)

Source: Eurostat, Trade Data Monitor LLC

¹Available supplies = production + imports - exports

Figure 1 shows available supplies of butter, cheese, SMP and WMP in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with same period previous year. Available supplies have increased across the board except WMP.

According to Rabobank, milk deliveries in the EU are expected to decline 0.9% in 2026, which is more likely to be visible later in the year. This contrasts with overall predicted 0.2% increase year-on-year in the Big 7 exporting nations during the period.

Farm margins are coming under pressure with higher milk volumes continuing to pressurise markets.

Production of dairy products, butter and SMP in particular, are likely to be affected.

Global geopolitical instability following war in Iran and Ukraine is disrupting trade flows thereby impacting availability.

Animal diseases continue to remain a cause of concern for the sector along with economic and environmental factors in the domestic market.