How China’s final anti‑dumping ruling is reshaping EU export strategy: The next phase

Market access watch is a new blog series exploring how global trade shifts are reshaping access to key meat markets. It aims to highlight emerging dynamics and complement the important work already being done across the trade and policy community.

When the first edition of Market access watch was published in September 2025, China’s provisional anti-dumping duties on EU pork had already disrupted supply chains, paused shipments, and forced exporters to rapidly reassess pricing, logistics and market diversification plans.

On 17 December 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) published its final ruling, confirming dumping and imposing definitive anti-dumping duties for five years.

While the duties remain in place, the final rates are significantly lower than the provisional tariffs, bringing clarity for exporters and reshaping the competitive landscape.

The final MOFCOM ruling sets duties as follows:

Company type                                Provisional duties         Final duties

Sampled companies                        15.6%–32.7%                  4.9%–19.8%

Other cooperating companies       20%                                   9.8%

Other EU companies                        62.4%                              19.8%

Excess provisional deposits paid since 10 September 2025 will be refunded, easing cash flow pressures and improving planning certainty.

Compared with the provisional rates, the final duties are substantially lower, giving EU exporters greater certainty and reduced financial pressure.

This allows companies to resume or renegotiate contracts with confidence and helps stabilise market flows.

Structural risks remain, however, particularly for fifth-quarter products, which have limited alternative markets outside China.

The European Commission expressed concern about China’s final ruling and pledged to “defend exporters” as they adapt to the duty regime.

At the industry level, French pork association Inaporc noted “a sense of relief” that moderate rates were applied, while also acknowledging that companies “can’t exactly rejoice at the prospect of a tax.”

This reaction highlights cautious optimism among EU exporters, relief at the reduced duties, but recognition that China remains a critical, high-risk market.

Pressure on EU agri-food exports to China is not limited to pork. Dairy has also come under scrutiny, with China launching a separate anti-subsidy investigation into certain EU dairy products in late 2025.

Preliminary measures announced at the end of December cover a range of products, including milk, cream, curd and some cheeses.

While the dairy investigation is separate from the pork case, it reflects similar market-access risks and contributes to wider EU–China trade tensions.

Together, these cases underline that exporters across sensitive agri-food sectors face heightened regulatory exposure, reinforcing the importance of early monitoring, diversification strategies, and proactive market access engagement across all product categories.

The final MOFCOM ruling provides EU exporters with much-needed relief, but it also reinforces that reliance on a single market, particularly for niche products like fifth-quarter pork, carries risk.

EU companies can rebuild confidence with Chinese importers, resume contracts, and adjust pricing strategies.

At the same time, structural vulnerabilities remain for products with limited alternative markets.

For UK exporters, the ruling brings renewed competition as EU exporters regain footing in China. At the same time, it highlights the importance of diversification and niche positioning.

Markets such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and other growth regions offer strategic opportunities, helping maintain stability despite shifting global flows.

Across Europe, the ruling underscores the need for strategic market access work, from early engagement with regulators to monitoring emerging investigations and supporting diversification into new markets.

In short, the MOFCOM ruling is not just a challenge to manage. It is a reminder that market access resilience and proactive strategy are central to long-term commercial success.

China’s final anti-dumping ruling is a clear reminder that global markets are complex and evolving.

Market access teams play a crucial role in turning uncertainty into opportunity, providing guidance, monitoring policy developments and supporting strategic diversification.

In an interconnected global market, proactive market access is more than a support function. It is a strategic driver of long term commercial success.