GB milk deliveries: June heat accelerated the decline in milk volumes

Key points:

• GB daily deliveries fell by an estimated 3.1% in June compared to the previous year
• Heat stress on cows has reduced yields, particularly in the latter half of the month
• Lower milk prices and high input costs are putting pressure on margins

Daily deliveries in June averaged 35.51 million and totalled an estimated 1,065m litres for June, a reduction of 34m litres (-3.1%) compared to the previous year. This brings milk year to date (April-June) supplies for GB to 1.7% below 2025 levels.

June daily deliveries began just under last years’ high levels before falling sharply towards the end of the month. Production was impacted significantly by the extreme hot weather, with yields reduced as a result of heat stressed cows. Additionally, the reduction may have been exacerbated by volume management measures taken before month-end. The last week of available data (week ending 4 July) saw a 4.8% decline on year-ago levels, and stooped below the 5-year average.

Our latest production forecast estimates a 0.9% year-on-year decline for the whole 2026/27 season. The declining GB milking herd, volume management control schemes, a decline in the number of GB producer numbers, rising input costs and declining milk-to-feed-price-ratio (MFPR) are the major factors behind the drop in milk deliveries for this milk year.

In June, the acceleration of the decline has been linked to heat stress. The exceptional heat came in during the second half of the month, when milk volumes dropped more sharply, indicating the significant impact of heat stress on cows.

Early summer conditions have been largely favourable for rebuilding low forage supplies. However, recent hot and dry weather will likely slow growth rates.

As input costs continue to pressure already squeezed margins, availability of forage and straw will be crucial. We will continue to monitor the situation as the summer progresses.

 Figure 1. GB daily milk deliveries (m litres per day, seven-day rolling average)

 Source: AHDB

Line graph shows GB daily milk deliveries over time that rise in the Spring flush and then fall before rising through the Autumn. The graph shows that in June the 2026/27 line (in light blue) falls from between the 2025/26 line (in navy blue) and the 5-year average (in brown) to below the 5-year average. 

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