Predicting beef demand as retail prices rise

Key points:

• Retail beef inflation reached 9.1% in May 2025, leading to a loss of -3,300 tonnes of beef in a 12-week period (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 18 May 2025)
• In the past three years, beef inflation has reached a high of 16% in October 2022. If this level of inflation is seen again, it is estimated that there will be a loss of 12,500 tonnes of retail beef in a 12-week period (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, levers of growth estimations)
• Volume declines will be driven by consumers buying less beef, buying less types of cuts or switching out to cheaper proteins (primarily chicken and pork). Consumers are also managing their spend by switching to cheaper offerings (e.g. trading down from premium to standard tier) while spending more on promotions

Current beef performance

Retail beef inflation reached 9.1% in May 2025, leading to a decline in total beef volumes of -2.5%, equating to a loss of -3,300 tonnes of beef (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 18 May 2025).

This volume loss arose because of three different consumer behaviours: buying less types of beef cuts, buying less volume of the same cuts and stopping buying beef. Those who stopped buying beef switched to pork sausages, gammon roasting joints or chicken products (breast, diced, wings/legs/thighs).

Contributions to volume decline for total beef

Source: Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 18 May 2025

Alongside reducing volumes of beef, consumers also used other mechanisms to manage their spend. This includes spending more on promotion or switching to cheaper offerings (e.g. moving from 5%-fat mince to 20%-fat mince, trading down private label tiers, or buying in bulk) to save money. Switching to cheaper stores is seen to a limited extent - this behaviour change tends to be a last resort for consumers as inflation rises further (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 18 May 2025). As yet, there is no evidence of consumers turning to frozen beef or economy-tier beef.

Levers driving total beef spend change (£000)

Source: Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 18 May 2025, Total Beef spend change (£000)

Predicting consumer behaviour as inflation rises

In the past three years, beef inflation reached a high of 16% in October 2022 (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 9 October 2022). At this time, high inflation was seen across proteins, driven primarily by higher fuel prices.

By applying the shopper behaviours seen in October 2022 to the current situation, we predict that a beef inflation of 16% would lead to a decline in total beef volumes of
-12,500 tonnes over a period of 12 weeks, driven primarily by shoppers buying less types of cuts and buying less volume of their usual cuts.

Estimated 12-week contribution to year-on-year volume change if inflation reaches 16%

Source: Worldpanel by Numerator UK, Total Beef, estimated 12-week contribution to year-on-year volume change (tonnes) if inflation reaches 16%

Recommendations:

To minimise the impact of retail price inflation:

• Ensure there is sufficient breadth of choice in pack size and quality so that beef remains accessible for all consumers
• Consider multibuy deals on mince to encourage stability for this everyday staple. Demonstrate the taste and versatility credentials of beef mince, inspiring meals that are family friendly, filling and reduce waste with batch cooking
• Deliver promotions on premium beef cuts to help consumers trade up to more premium offerings such as restaurant quality dine-in deals. Make the most of seasonal events to promote seasonal cuts, e.g. beef roasting joints for Christmas
• Communicate the unique benefits of beef cuts that are not easily replaced by other proteins such as beef burgers and steaks. AHDB’s Let's Eat Balanced consumer campaign highlights the taste and nutritional benefits of British beef
• Work to ensuring robustness in domestic supplies as this will help to stabilise beef inflation for consumers and support demand across the range of beef cuts. This is an area where AHDB strives to support farmers to be more efficient, profitable and resilient, through our work in areas such as genetic evaluations, animal health and welfare, and knowledge exchange. In addition, we support profitability across the whole supply chain through domestic marketing, export market development and the provision of evidence and insight in areas such as market intelligence

Explore the full analysis and insights into the impact of rising beef prices within the out-of-home market in our recent article.

See the latest data and insights around food service on our Retail data | AHDB dashboard.

Click on the drop-downs below to explore the detail for key beef cuts.

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