Chinese pork production to bounce back while beef supplies in South America remain tight

Thursday, 22 July 2021

The USDA has released its latest Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report.

In the pork market, global pork production for 2021 has been increased from previous USDA forecasts to 105.1 million tonnes. This increase has been largely driven by high production in China as output rebounds after the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak.

However, Chinese imports of pork have also been revised upwards, and the Philippines is also now expected to increase imports.

Pork production in the Philippines is still around 40% below levels recorded pre-ASF. Rebuilding of herds has so far been limited in part due to government regulations, on both pig movement restrictions and price limitations on pork at retail level. Imports by the Philippines however have been robust – driven by lower domestic production and attractive prices compared to other global markets.

Global beef production is forecast to stand at 60.8 million tonnes, driven by declines in Argentina, Australia and Brazil. Australia is currently rebuilding its national herd following the drought and therefore marketing of heifers will be reduced. In Argentina the government has been tackling high beef prices by limiting exports, to try and increase supplies on the domestic market.

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Rebecca Wright

Senior Analyst - Red Meat

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