Beef 2030 supply forecasts: How beef production in Great Britain may change by 2030

Read our analysis of future trends in domestic beef cattle supply to inform your strategic planning.

Using four scenarios, we have modelled future supply of prime cattle and cows, as well as beef production levels in Great Britain. Projections and assumptions are made for several variables, including the breeding dairy and suckler herd size, average productivity levels and carcase weights. We hope this will inform a basis for exploring the future of cattle supply and beef production.

In Conclusions and implications, we suggest what the industry and the Government might do to ensure a strong and resilient beef sector, one that is able to capitalise on future opportunity.

The Results and Methodology show the assumptions we have made and the limitations of the forecasts.

Key points

• Lower levels of cattle slaughter and beef production are forecast in Great Britain by 2030 in all scenarios, assuming current trends in the size of the national dairy and suckler cow herds will continue. The most likely forecast for prime cattle slaughter is a 6.3% reduction by 2030 (compared with 2023 actual figures)
• Given long-term forecasts for relatively stable domestic consumption, this analysis suggests national self-sufficiency in beef could be reduced
• There is potential for the beef sector to think and act differently to mitigate a reduction in supplies. This would require actions by farmers, the wider supply chain and the Government in areas such as agricultural policy, business efficiency and resilience to offset this decline
• Improvements in calving efficiency would help support production levels, while improved producer confidence and market conditions would facilitate more stability or even expansion in production levels during the forecast period

Continue reading about the analysis