Beef 2030 supply forecasts: Methodology and the four scenarios

Four scenarios have been proposed to give a range of trajectories for beef production by 2030.

The scenarios are based on applying recent historical trends from 2025 onwards and therefore do not account for external market forces: for example, the impact of price movements on slaughter rates.

Assumptions

Across the scenarios:

• The main metrics adjusted are the size of the GB breeding dairy and suckler cow herds
• Metrics for efficiency (such as live calves per 100 cows) are kept as rolling averages
• Average carcase weights are assumed to be stable from 2024 onwards

Detailed assumptions for each scenario are described below.

Baseline

The baseline scenario applies the historical 10-year average rate of annual change of +0.1% and –1.5% to the national dairy and suckler cow herds, respectively, from 2025 onwards. The number of calves born to the herd is set as a rolling three-year average.

Range

To forecast a range around this baseline, a best-case and worst-case scenario have been modelled.

Best-case scenario

The best-case scenario assumes market conditions and profitability are more positive.

As such, an average rate of annual change of +0.2% and –0.6% to the GB dairy and suckler herds are applied, respectively, from 2025 onwards.

The number of calves born to the herd is set as a rolling three-year average.

Worst-case scenario

The worst-case scenario applies a steeper rate of contraction to the breeding herds, assuming that market conditions are less favourable.

The historical five-year average rate of annual change of –0.6% and –2.4% are applied to the national dairy and suckler cow herds, respectively, from 2025 onwards.

The number of calves born to the herd is set as a rolling three-year average.

Best-case + scenario

The best-case + scenario builds on the forecast range by offering a realistic trajectory for production if producer confidence and efficiency improved further.

The breeding herds are set on a more optimistic trajectory. An average rate of annual change of +0.5% is applied to the dairy herd, while the suckler herd is set as stable from 2025 onwards.

This scenario assumes a sustained increase in the efficiency metric of the number of calves born to the breeding herds (live calves per 100 cows).

Risks, limitations and caveats

The scenarios are based on applying annual percentage changes to the size of the breeding herds and assumptions for variables such as calving and culling rates.

The models underlying the scenarios are static: they do not factor in any future market forces such as changes in consumption, imports, exports or prices, and any subsequent market impact.

Caveats that could influence the outcome of the forecasts

• Contraction or expansion in consumer demand at a domestic and international level
• Disease outbreaks that could cause mortality, reduced productivity or inhibit animal movements
• Changing government policies or interventions that could incentivise or discourage production of beef
• Changing supply chain requirements around production. For example, changing trends surrounding age at slaughter
• Impact of extreme weather and/or climate change on land use and beef production
• Changes to international trading beef patterns and market access
• Changes in land use and production systems (for example, from uptake of natural capital)

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