What does UK supply and demand look like in 2025/26?

• UK feed wheat futures (May-26) closed at £172.75/t down £0.45/t (0.3%). Sterling gained on both the US dollar (£1 = $1.324, LSEG) and the euro (£1 = €1.1412) yesterday, reaching the highest levels in a month. This caused a downward correction in domestic wheat prices
• Chicago wheat futures gained 0.3% yesterday with Ukrainian maize exports falling due to logistical problems and higher moisture levels due to rain at harvest. Exports in November 2024 are 1.3Mt down from 2.5Mt in 2024
• Paris rapeseed (May-26) gained €0.50/t (0.1%) to close at €478.50/t, a smaller rise than other key oilseed futures as the euro lifted slightly against the US dollar
• In the US, Chicago soyabean futures increased 0.5% yesterday on news that China has bought 10 cargoes of soyabeans following a call between Trump and Xi on Monday. Doubts that the sales will reach the 12 Mt stated by the White House still limits the market. Meanwhile, China has rejected 69 Kt of Brazilian soyabeans after wheat with pesticides not approved for the Chinese market was found on board. There has been limited market impact but is a watch point as the US looks to boost sales
• Many traders also reportedly closed out their positions before markets closed for Thanksgiving today (27 November) in the US
• Market expectations of a further one‑year delay in the implementation of the European regulation on deforestation and forest degradation (EUDR) are growing. This is likely to be negative for rapemeal prices, which will need to be monitored for any knock-on impacts for rapeseed prices

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This morning we released the first official UK cereals supply and demand estimates for 2025/26. With a very mixed harvest this season for cereal crops and uncertainties around demand, we take a look at what this means for supply and demand this season.

So, what are the key changes from last season?

Imports to pull back

Last season the UK imported record levels of both wheat and maize (electronic records), following a poor domestic harvest in 2024. In 2025/26, imports of both wheat and maize are forecast to be lower than 2024/258 and at more typical levels.

For wheat, despite the adverse weather conditions over the spring and summer, the quality of the crop is good and functional. Therefore, wheat imports are pegged at 2.20 Mt, down 28% on the year.

With a drop in bioethanol demand (more on that below), a relatively well supplied feed pool and domestic grains pricing more favourable to imported product, less maize is expected to be imported this season. Maize imports are currently pegged at 2.29 Mt, down 26% on the year.

Dwindling demand

While total cereal usage in animal feed is estimated to remain relatively unchanged from last season, total cereals consumption by human and industrial (H&I) sectors is set to fall by 11% on the year to a 16-year low.

With the UK bioethanol sector experiencing extremely difficult operating conditions, following the securing of the UK-US trade deal, the UK’s two major bioethanol plants, Vivergo and Ensus have faced immense pressure.

Vivergo shut down operations in August 2025 and Ensus is yet to get back up and running following its usual maintenance break in September.

In the absence of government incentives for domestic bioethanol production as yet, it is assumed for these balance sheets that Ensus will remain out of operation too for the rest of the 2025/26 season.

It's not just a drop in bioethanol demand that is fuelling the overall decline, demand from the brewing malting and distilling (BMD) sector is also expected to continue to decline

H&I barley demand is forecast at a 16-year low, with the BMD sector being significantly impacted by the cost-of-living crisis and changing consumer habits. While not expecting a huge decline, usage by flour millers is also set to drop slightly this year too, with some citing changing consumer habits as part of the reason.

Drop in supply outweighs a fall in demand, leading to a tighter balance sheet

Despite the drop in consumption, the overall predicted fall in availability has led to a tighter total cereals balance sheet. It’s not just the estimates telling us this, the market is also pricing like this – we are still pricing for imports rather than exports.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the season pans out. Could we import more than is currently estimated – especially if the predicted enormous global maize crop hits the market?

Similarly, the demand picture will play its part. Will the bioethanol sector get back up and running? Could we see further drops in BMD usage, like some are suggesting? Or could we see even stronger animal feed demand?

However, the latter of these I am unsure of due to the number of animals on the ground. One thing is certain; we remain in unprecedented times.

Markets remain very pressured at the moment, but we must remember it is cyclical and prices will rebound at some point. For me, with such challenging operating conditions at the moment, understanding your costs, margins and end markets, has never been more important.

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