UK cattle and sheep populations continue to contract in Defra’s June survey: Beef and lamb market update

Key points:

• The UK cattle population stood at 9.29 million head as of 1 June 2025, a 1% decline versus the same point in 2024.
• Modest growth was seen in the size of the milking herd, however this was outweighed by another significant annual fall in the number of suckler cows.
• UK sheep numbers continue to reduce. The national flock was almost 2% smaller year-on-year in June, with falls across all categories, including ewe numbers.

Beef

As of 1 June 2025 the UK cattle herd totalled 9.29 million head, a fall of 1% (120,000 head) compared to the year prior. Declines were seen across most major categories.

However, the dairy breeding herd bucked the trend, recording annual growth of 1% to reach 1.85 million head. Numbers rose in all four nations, with the largest expansion in Northern Ireland. A run of strong milk prices throughout the spring and summer likely incentivised increased cow retention, supporting this growth to June. However, we have since seen milk prices fall and therefore could expect some contraction in the dairy herd moving forward.

In contrast, contraction continued in the suckler herd, with numbers falling by a further 4% on the year to 1.29 million head. This decline was felt across all four nations and likely reflects continued lack of producer confidence in the suckler industry, despite recent strength in beef prices.

UK breeding cow herd as of 1 June

Source: Defra

Some growth was observed in the number of cattle under 1 year old, which might indicate some upside for longer-term growth in the beef pipeline. Defra recorded almost 44,000 head more cattle in 2025 across the under-1-year beef females and under-1-year males (dairy and beef) categories. It is likely that this growth is driven by increasing numbers of dairy beef animals entering the system. This may indicate some upside for cattle supplies looking further ahead into 2027/28.

Population of beef cattle aged under 1 year old as at 1 June 2025 compared to 2024

Source: Defra

Sheep

The UK sheep flock totalled 30.48 million head as of 1 June 2025. This was a fall of almost 2% compared to 2024, with declines across both the female breeding flock and the other sheep and lamb category.

Lambs under 1 year old (as of 1 June 2025) totalled 14.78 million head, the lowest level recorded since the dataset started in 1984. This is a 3% fall versus 2024, equivalent to 437,500 lambs and below the level we forecasted.

Whilst contraction in the breeding flock is the major driver of this, it is likely other factors also played a part. Challenges with ewe condition and poor weather conditions at tupping may have reduced conception and lambing rates. Additionally, increased prevalence of bluetongue is suspected to have impacted on lamb numbers, affecting fertility in both ewes and lambs. The smaller lamb crop has tightened supply and lent support to prices in recent months.

The female breeding flock saw an overall decline of nearly 1% year-on-year to sit at 14.78 million head. This was driven by a fall in the number of ewes intended for further breeding and for slaughter, down 2% year-on-year. However, the number of ewes intended for first time breeding increased sharply. This may be a reflection of the high prices for adult sheep seen in 2025, with people potentially opting to cull older animals and keep more ewe lambs for replacements.

UK sheep population at 1 June

Source: Defra

Splitting the data out by nation, the steepest annual contractions were in the Northern Irish (-8%) and English flocks (-4%). England accounted for 44% of the total UK flock in this census. In contrast, the Scottish and Welsh flocks grew slightly, particularly in breeding sheep.

Looking forward, the smaller female breeding flock points to continued contraction in the UK lamb crop for 2026, although disease and weather will be key influences as we move into the new year. AHDB's lamb outlook will be released in February, outlining expectations for production, trade and consumption for 2026.

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