Q1 2026 EU dairy products available supplies trend up

Key trends

• Butter and cheese stocks grew, boosted by increase in milk deliveries
• Cheese stocks also rose amid spectacular growth in production
• SMP stocks continued the uptrend whilst WMP stocks shrank

Milk deliveries in the EU increased by 4.6% in Q1 2026 year-on-year, boosting the production of dairy products. Favourable dairy economics continued to drive increase in milk flows. Coupled with this, increased imports further strengthened the supplies of butter, cheese and SMP. Lower production and imports dragged down the available supplies of WMP.

Total dairy exports on the continent picked up by 6.9% in the first quarter year-on-year. Good demand for butter, cheese and SMP boosted exports while exports of WMP remained lower amid subdued demand from some Middle East and Asian countries. Higher price of WMP compared to Oceania weighed on exports.

Butter stocks continued to scale up

The increase in available supplies of butter during Q1 2026 was due to increasing production, supported by strong milk supplies. Imports also rose during the period. Exports picked up by a remarkable 34.1% (19,700 tonnes) but not enough to compensate for growth in production. Exports increased to some Asia and MENA (Middle East and North Africa) nations.

On balance, available supplies of butter increased 8.8% (43,000 tonnes) year-on-year in Q1 2026.

Cheese supplies continued to grow

Cheese supplies were elevated in Q1 following an increase in production and higher imports. Along with strong growth in milk supplies, the protein and fat content increased thereby boosting higher production. Export demand was up mainly from the United Kingdom followed by some Asian and MENA (Middle East and North Africa) nations. Available supplies of cheese increased by 1.7% (37,800 tonnes) in the first quarter year-on-year.

SMP stocks trend up whilst WMP fell

Available supplies of SMP edged up by 33.7% (53,900 tonnes) year-on-year in Q1 2026. Production and imports increased by 20.8% and 19% respectively which outweighed the increase in exports of 9.7%. Exports increased mainly to Asian countries including Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Israel, Oman, Lebanon, Yemen, Qatar, Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco in MENA.

WMP production continued the decline seen in the beginning of the year, witnessing a decline of 4.6% in Q1 2026. Processors continued to direct more milk towards production of butter and SMP. Imports declined 75.8% (5000 tonnes) during the period. Export demand remained subdued and declined to the Middle East (Israel, Oman, Kuwait, Serbia) and Asia (Bangladesh, China, Singapore, South Korea).

Available supplies declined by 7.7% (6300 tonnes) due to lower production and imports.

Figure 1. Year-on-year change in EU dairy product availability (Jan-Mar, 2026 v 2025)

(thousand tonnes)

Source: Eurostat, Trade Data Monitor LLC

¹Available supplies = production + imports - exports

Figure 1 shows available supplies of butter, cheese, SMP and WMP in the first quarter of 2026 compared with same period in the previous year. Available supplies have increased across the board except WMP.

Production (light blue bar)
Imports (dark blue bar)

Exports (green bar)

Available supplies (dark red bar)

According to the latest short -term outlook agricultural report, the European Commission expects limited growth in milk supply in the second half of the year. However, this would still mean too much milk in the market as we are comparing versus a higher base. Milk yields are expected to increase 2.4% in 2026, expanding the availability of fats and protein and thereby push up the production of dairy products.

Demand is expected to be lacklustre ahead of the summer holidays. Consumers will spend cautiously amid increasing inflation. The ongoing weather challenges and geopolitical factors gives us the impression that 2026 will keep seeing uncertain market conditions which will shape available supplies in the market accordingly.

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