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Milk Forecasting Forum discusses the challenges facing farmers in the 2025/26 season
Tuesday, 23 September 2025
Summary
The AHDB Milk Forecasting Forum (MFF) met on the 23 September to discuss the factors impacting on future GB milk production. The main points of conversation were focused around:
- Recent trends in herd size and milk yields. In particular, the discussions focussed on the likely decline in milk prices to affect milk output. Steep increase in labour cost and availability remain a cause of concern
- How economically and for how long can we retain the lower performing cows in the herd?
- Concerns on forage shortage influencing breeding decisions and cow numbers
- Forage availability is quite regional. However, it remains a challenge for many
- Impact of BTV3 on dairy herd and milk production and likely uptake of vaccinations
- Feed market outlook – will bearish costs keep production flowing?
- To what extent the strong Milk to Feed Price Ratio (currently in the expansion zone) will incentivise production during the season
- Will demand support prices and are margins currently adequate to continue to support increased milk production?
- Will the weather next spring support early turnout and milk production, forage quality and availability or will it be more average (or poor?)
- Persistent uncertainty around global geopolitical factors affecting trade flows
- The potential longer-term impact of environmental legislation on herd size and structure and inflation on input costs
We've released a pack of the information discussed at the forum, which you can download from the Milk Forecasting Forum webpage.
We will be updating our production forecast later this month (September 2025). In the meantime, our June forecast update can be found on the website.
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