June forecast sets 2021/22 GB milk production at 12.58bn litres

Wednesday, 16 June 2021

By Kat Jack

GB milk production is expected to reach 12.58bn litres in 2021/22, up 0.3% on 2020/21, according to our June forecast update. This forecast is very similar to our last forecast, only 10ml lower than we predicted in March, which has mostly come from the latest herd figures being very slightly below our previous prediction.

 

 

Feed continues to be a key watch point, as feed prices have been running high. This has in turn pushed the milk to feed price ratio (MFPR) into the ‘contraction zone’ for some contract types, meaning that farmers may have to constrain their production.

Although feed prices are high, grass is currently abundant, with a strong recovery after a rocky start to the season. This means plenty for grazing and for making silage, though there are still question marks over the quality of that silage. This could help mitigate the impact of high feed prices over next six months, if the forage quality is good, but if the price situation hasn’t improved by winter we could see that impacting production. That said, rising feed costs were incorporated into our previous forecast, and overall our expectations remain in line with where they were in the spring.  

 

Visit our milk forecasting forum page

Katherine Jack

Analyst - Dairy



Sign up for regular updates

You can subscribe to receive Dairy market news straight to your inbox. Simply fill in your contact details on our online form and select the information you wish to receive.

Visit the Keep in touch page

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved. 

×