Irish beef prices above GB for the first time in three years: Beef market update

Key points

• Irish prime cattle prices have moved higher than their GB equivalent in recent weeks.
• Tightness in Irish supply is driving these higher prices, with prime slaughter down 19% YoY in the last four weeks.
• This strength in Irish prices may be lending support to the GB price and contributing to the stability seen in recent weeks.

Prime prices

Both GB and Irish prime cattle prices saw exceptional growth in the early part of 2025. GB prices fell away quite steeply and then appear to have stabilised in recent weeks, whereas we have seen smaller falls followed by a price rally in the Irish market. This has resulted in Irish prime prices sitting above the GB equivalent for four weeks.

The last time that the prices intersected was in May/Jun of 2022, where the Irish price sat higher than GB for only five weeks.

Irish and GB R3 steer prices

Source: European Commission, AHDB

Production

The major driver of the recent strength in Irish beef prices has been tightness in supply. Weekly prime kill has fallen significantly in recent weeks, with throughput down 19% year on year in the four weeks ending 25 Aug.

Irish prime cattle kill, weekly

Source: DAFM

This tightness in supply has been accelerated by strong prices and demand for cattle driving higher than forecast kills in the early part of this year. This demand has been reflected both domestically and in export markets with H1 figures showing a year-on-year increase in Irish export volumes to its three top markets; the UK, France and Netherlands, alongside growth to other EU countries.

This is combined with a longer-term structural decline in the Irish beef herd, which has also reduced supplies available. As at 1 July 2025, the Irish beef herd stood at 4.12 million head, a 3% fall on the year, with the greatest declines in animals aged 18-30 months. This both illustrates the current supply challenge and indicates it is likely to continue, as there are lower numbers of cattle in the pipeline.

What’s the outlook?

Bord Bia are forecasting a 5% year on year decline in Irish prime cattle supply for 2025. With higher kills already seen in the early part of the year, it is expected that contraction will be felt more strongly in the coming months.

What could this for the GB beef market?

The strength in the Irish price in recent weeks is likely supporting the stability we have seen in the GB price, given domestic demand is taking a hit as price increases impact volumes in retail.

Higher Irish prices and lower supply may limit volume of Irish imports into the UK. Indeed, in H1 we have seen total beef volumes from Ireland down 4%, with declines across fresh, frozen and processed products.

Looking ahead, supply outlooks on both sides of the Irish sea would point to sustained support for cattle prices. Seasonally we would expect some uptick in beef demand heading into Q4 as schools return and Christmas procurement approaches. However, we expect inflationary pressures to keep demand subdued to previous years. How price inflation in beef is managed across British and Irish lines will be crucial to maintaining volume sales, and we will monitor closely the impact on consumer purchasing and the wider market.

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