Green shoots of recovery for organic dairy production

According to the latest June 2024 Organic farming statistics from Defra, the number of organic dairy cows has been decreasing since 2019, with a 7% decline from 2023 to 2024. The latest data for 2024 shows that 1.5% of dairy cows in the UK were in an organic system, down from 1.6% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2022 , now standing at 48,000 head.

Organic dairy cow numbers in the UK (thousand head)

Source: Defra Organic Farming Statistics

Total dairy cow numbers saw a less steep decline in 2024 compared to the previous year. As of June 2024, the total number of dairy cows in the UK stood at 3,209 thousand head, 1,900 head (-0.6%) less than the same point in the previous year.

GB organic milk deliveries show a more positive picture

Alongside this fall in UK cow numbers, GB organic deliveries (note GB, not UK) for the 2024/25 milk year fell by 5% compared to the previous season. However, this has been followed by year-on-year growth since December 2024. The 2025/26 milk year began with strong year-on-year growth. The poor start to the 2024/25 season was highlighted as 2023/24 volumes were near matching. The latest GB organic delivery estimates showing a 13.8% year-on-year increase in the milk year so far (up to the week ending 24 May), totalling 64.4 million litres.

Although production is estimated for GB only, and productivity per cow has increased, this indicates growth of the organic dairy cow population.

Source: AHDB

Retail demand strengthens

After a period of disappointing organic retail performance following the cost-of-living crisis, demand for total organic food and drink saw positive growth in 2024, increasing by 7.3% to reach market value of £3.7bn (Soil Association). Additionally, data for the first quarter of 2025 shows a continuation of the positive momentum, with further volume and value growth. Over the 52 weeks ending 22nd March 2025, the total organic market has seen +8.9% value growth and +5.3% unit growth.

According to NIQ Panel on demand, in the 52 weeks ending 19 April 2025 the volume of cow’s dairy (in kgs) purchased with an organic claim increased by 7.0% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, volumes of total cow’s dairy declined 0.7% during the same period.

Capitalising on the growth in demand for organic

Future demand will be dependent on the economic situation ahead. While inflation has steadied, further economic shocks and uncertainty could put a dampener on the organic demand recovery. It will be important to communicate benefits of organic to consumers to justify the price premium and bring in new shoppers.

There may also be greater opportunities for export, particularly as Bluetongue hinders production in the EU. Organic is a more developed consumer proposition in Germany, for example, with higher market share.

Meanwhile, growth of organic land is dependent on producer economics. Though prices are influenced by demand, the ability to produce organically largely comes down to land use policy and incentives, with the transition to organic farming being a significant shift for producers.

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