Record wheat imports so far this season: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) closed at £188.20.25/t yesterday, falling £2.00/t from Friday’s close. The Nov-25 contract lost £1.60/t over the same period, to close at £193.10/t.
• Domestic wheat markets declined yesterday, along with Paris wheat futures (May-25), as sterling and the euro strengthened against the US dollar after indications that Donald Trump may not immediately impose trade sanctions as the incoming US president.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-25) closed at €532.75/t yesterday, rising €2.50/t from Friday’s close. The Nov-25 contract gained €0.25/t over the same period, to close at €488.75/t.
• A strengthening in the vegetable oils complex supported rapeseed prices. Chicago soyabean oil and Winnipeg canola futures (May-25) gained 1.43% and 2.24% respectively from Friday’s close.

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Following a difficult growing year in 2024, domestic grain imports have remained strong according to latest data from HMRC. Unsurprisingly exports of UK grain have been very steady.

Wheat imports reach record levels

The strong pace of wheat imports has continued due to lower production and quality issues in 2024, as well as a historically higher level of sterling against the euro. 295.1 Kt of wheat was imported in November 2024, up 71% on the year and more than double the five-year average pace for November of 127.3 Kt. This takes season to date (Jul-Nov) imports to 1.45 Mt, the largest volume imported up to November since at least electronic records began in 1995/96. For context, in 2012/13 and 2013/14, July to November wheat imports totalled 1.03 Mt and 1.18 Mt respectively.

It is expected that a large proportion of UK wheat imports to date are of milling quality, with 529.5 Kt coming in from Germany from July to November and 235 Kt from Canada over the same period alone.

Currently full season wheat imports are forecast at 2.75 Mt in the UK cereal supply and demand estimates, 13% higher compared to 2023/24. While the import pace has been rapid so far this season, it is expected that it will slow during the latter part of the season. The next UK cereal supply and demand estimates are due to be published next Thursday (30 Jan).

Maize imports remain strong

In November, maize imports reached 302.7 Kt, the highest this season and 17% up on the year. Total imports from July to November are now 1.19 Mt, the highest since 2020/21 and 23% above the five-year average.  

The pace of maize imports has been encouraged by its relative price and availability earlier in the season, compared with domestic grains. Furthermore, concerns over the RED II status of domestic supplies has made maize an even more so attractive option for bioethanol production.   

Sluggish exports

Unsurprisingly, exports of UK grains are lagging behind the pace of last year and the five-year average. Given the smaller wheat crop in 2024 and relative strength of sterling from July to November, wheat exports totalled 51.6 Kt, down 62% from last year and 84% below the previous five-year average. Season-to-date barley exports have totalled 189.3 Kt, below last year’s 330.9 Kt and the five-year average of 1.1 Mt. For oats, 5.5 Kt was exported from July to November, significantly lower than last season’s 57.8 Kt and the five-year average of 45.2 Kt.

On 30 January, AHDB will be releasing the next UK cereal supply and demand estimates, which will include export and stock projections for wheat and barley for this first time this season, as well as updated estimates for 2024/25 usage and imports.

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