Fertiliser availability insights highlight pressure on supply for key products

Since the conflict in the Middle East began at the beginning of March there have been impacts to both prices and availability of nitrogen fertiliser products.

During March AHDB started to publish weekly fertiliser prices. The impact of the Middle East conflict on prices was initially quite significant with imported ammonium nitrate increasing by £130/t and granular urea prices by almost £200/t by mid-April. Since then, price increases have slowed down and have settled significantly higher than levels pre-conflict.  

Alongside concerns about prices, there has been increasing focus on the potential impacts on the availability of different fertiliser products. The Middle East region is a key area for the production and shipping of global supplies of oil, gas and urea.

Around 35% of global urea exports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, therefore any restrictions on shipping will have impacts on the supply of urea globally. Also, gas is a key component in fertiliser production, making up about 60% of costs in fertiliser production, therefore any supply restrictions or price increases will have an impact on fertiliser prices and availability.  

Last week, AHDB gathered insight into the availability of the nine fertiliser products covered by our weekly price reporting. We asked about the ability of merchants and buyer groups to fulfil orders and delivery timeframes.

Our sample reported that they were able to fulfil orders for the majority of the products but have cited only being able to fulfil 75% of orders within 28 days of order of Granular Urea, Liquid Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN), imported and domestically produced Ammonium Nitrate fertiliser and Nitrate Sulphur.

Granular Urea accounts for the largest share of UK nitrogen fertiliser imports and together with UAN, the two products account for the majority of imported nitrogen fertiliser. 

Whilst the UK’s Granular Urea is for the most part imported from the EU, Egypt and Algeria, the important role of the Middle-East to global Urea supplies and Urea shipping routes is impacting global supply chains.  

For liquid UAN, whilst the UK imports the majority from the EU, US and Trinidad and Tobago, its production remains dependant on global ammonia markets which will be impacted by supply and shipping disruptions.  

In turn, merchants and buyer groups are reporting longer delivery times of up to 8 weeks for Nitrate Sulphur and 6 weeks for Granular Urea, Liquid UAN as well as imported and domestically produced ammonium nitrate fertilisers. 

Delivery timeframes for potash, phosphate and polysulphate are reported to be within normal timeframe of within 28 days of the order. 

Its important to note that whilst we have outlined the overall trends, which are underpinned by a good degree of consensus, merchant and buyer group feedback suggests a mixed picture for reported availability from suppliers which shows growers may have varying levels of success in securing orders.    

Whilst there is good availability of many fertiliser products, the evidence suggests a degree of supply pressure emerging on the availability of some key products utilised by growers. 

AHDB continue to monitor fertiliser availability and will report on any significant changes that are reported to us as we enter a key buying window for growers.