Dry spring raises concerns for UK crop development despite promising start

After one of the best spring planting windows in recent memory, UK farmers are now facing growing concerns over dry weather conditions that are beginning to impact crop development.

April saw just 56% of the average rainfall across the UK, with temperatures also well above seasonal norms.

While this helped spring cereal planting progress swiftly, emerging crops – particularly spring barley – are now showing signs of stress.

Helen Plant, AHDB Senior Analyst (Cereals & Oilseeds), said:

“While the dry conditions supported rapid spring sowing, the lack of follow-up rain is now putting pressure on crop development.

"We’ve seen variation across regions, with some areas benefitting from mid-April showers while others continue to struggle. This could affect yield potential if dry conditions continue in May.”

Our latest crop development report shows a dip in winter cereal condition scores through April.

Winter wheat in good or excellent condition fell from 67% at the end of March to 60% by the end of April – though still well above the 45% seen this time last year. Winter barley and oats also saw minor declines, while winter oilseed rape improved slightly.

Low disease pressure has so far been a silver lining, although yellow rust is becoming more frequent in winter wheat and there have been reports of gout fly damage.

The dry spell has also complicated weed control in some winter cereals.

Despite the recent challenges, early indicators suggest this year’s winter crops are faring better than those in 2024. However, they remain behind the strong seasons of 2023 and 2022.

Initial signs for spring cereals are promising. Although longer-term outcomes will depend heavily on weather patterns in the coming weeks.

We will continue to closely monitor conditions. The next crop development report is due on Friday 30 May.